Key Points
- Bitcoin futures have surpassed the $100,000 mark on Deribit, indicating high market optimism.
- Despite this, the spot price of Bitcoin remains below the $100,000 level, suggesting mixed market sentiments.
Bitcoin futures have made a significant leap, crossing the $100,000 threshold on the leading digital assets derivatives exchange, Deribit. This typically signifies a high level of confidence among traders about the future value of the cryptocurrency.
At the time of reporting, the futures contract due to expire on March 28 was trading at $102,362. This represents a 4.51% premium compared to Bitcoin’s global average spot price, which was approximately $97,600.
Future Contracts Indicate High Optimism
Data from Deribit and TradingView reveal that futures contracts with later expiry dates are trading even higher. Specifically, contracts set to mature on June 27 and September 26 were trading at $105,270 and $107,905, respectively. These premiums, at 4.56% and 4.70%, have formed an upward-sloping futures curve, indicating extreme optimism. This suggests that traders anticipate the spot price of Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 by early 2025 and continue to rise throughout the year.
Despite the optimism displayed in Deribit’s futures market, the spot market tells a slightly different story. The spot price of Bitcoin remains under the $100,000 mark, with even some futures contracts due to expire sooner trading in the sub-100,000 range. For instance, the contract set to expire on December 27 was trading at $99,117.
Mixed Market Sentiments
Furthermore, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), often used to gauge institutional interest, shows futures prices staying below six figures. This discrepancy suggests mixed sentiments in the futures market. While traders on Deribit are largely optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, others in different market segments remain cautious.
Regardless, reaching the $100,000 futures milestone is a significant achievement. Options data from Deribit further bolsters the bullish sentiment, with the $100,000 call option having a notional open interest of $2.13 billion. This implies that traders are not holding back in their bets on Bitcoin surpassing this critical barrier.
