Key Points
- Bitcoin experiences a slight 1% drop, trading at around $64,000, as 21,000 Bitcoin options prepare to expire.
- Bitcoin’s retail demand has reached a three-year low, with a less than 15% change in the last 30 days.
After reaching a weekly high of $65,500, Bitcoin’s price has slightly retreated, dropping 1% and currently trading at approximately $64,000. The cryptocurrency market is paying close attention to the weekly Bitcoin options expiry due today.
According to data from Greeks.Live, 21,000 Bitcoin Options are set to expire today. These options have a put/call ratio of 1.2, a notional value of $1.2 billion, and the max pain point at $62,000. It’s been a week of significant growth for the crypto market, bolstered by numerous positive developments. All key term implied volatilities (IVs) have seen considerable increases, generally by 5% or more compared to last week.
Increasing Put-Call Ratio and Bitcoin’s Short-Term Prospects
An increasing put-call ratio, especially one greater than 0.7 or exceeding 1, suggests that equity traders are buying more puts than calls. This trend indicates a growing bearish sentiment in the market. Investors may be speculating on a market decline or hedging their portfolios against a potential sell-off.
The short-term outlook for Bitcoin doesn’t appear very promising, with the possibility of the BTC price correcting further up to $60,000 not being ruled out.
Declining Retail Demand for Bitcoin
In a post on X platform, Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju reported that Bitcoin’s retail demand has fallen to a three-year low. He also noted that the average monthly change in Bitcoin demand among retail investors has fallen below 15% in the last 30 days.
While large Bitcoin transactions are typically handled by institutions, many market analysts believe that a significant Bitcoin price rally can only begin with a surge in retail investors’ interest. According to CryptoQuant contributor Minkyu Woo, “The real bull run typically begins with massive buying volume driven by retail investors.” This suggests that a surge in retail investor activity generally enhances market sentiment.
On-chain data provider Santiment reported that positive commentary toward Bitcoin has significantly declined despite the recent mid-sized crypto market bounce. Many traders, particularly on Binance, are opening short positions, anticipating another drop in BTC. These combined factors increase the likelihood of a cryptocurrency rise.
