Key Points
- $1.1 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire, potentially causing short-term price impact.
- $510 million in Ethereum options are also expiring, indicating bearish market sentiment.
On Friday, the crypto market anticipates a potential short-term price impact as $1.1 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire. This event may push Bitcoin’s price under $60,000. Compared to the previous week, there has been a significant increase in the number of Bitcoin contracts set to expire today.
According to data from the crypto derivatives platform Deribit, a total of 18,271 Bitcoin options contracts are due to expire today. These contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.90 and a maximum pain point of $62,000. The maximum pain point often influences market dynamics as it represents the strike price where the expiration of options will lead to the most substantial financial losses for all option holders who have entered contracts at that price.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Outlook
Despite a brief dip under $60,000, the upcoming options expiry suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading at $60,612, significantly below its strike price. The recent surge in volatility coincides with macro developments such as the hotter-than-expected inflation data for September, which has further limited the Federal Reserve’s scope to announce a major rate cut in November.
Over the past nine months, Bitcoin has been trading around the $60,000 mark, an unusual period of stability that is unlikely to last. According to a report by 10x Research, Bitcoin is expected to either break out or experience a substantial decline by the first quarter of 2025. The report also highlighted several upcoming events that could impact Bitcoin’s price, emphasizing the need for investors to remain alert during this critical period.
Alongside the Bitcoin options, $510 million in Ethereum options are also set to expire on Friday. According to Deribit data, a total of 212,175 contracts will expire today, featuring a put-to-call ratio of 0.40 and a maximum pain point of $2,450. Ethereum is currently trading at $2,410, significantly below its strike price.
Option buyers for both Bitcoin and Ethereum stand to benefit from the current market performance. As the market continues to underperform, option sellers are expected to drive prices higher in an attempt to offset their losses.
10X Research has expressed a bearish outlook on Ethereum due to disappointing revenue performance and a lack of clear direction for the cryptocurrency. The firm suggests that the development team needs to improve its communication efforts regarding the platform’s narrative. Currently, the task of defining Ethereum’s identity seems to be falling to external entities, such as BlackRock.
