Key Points
- Bitcoin’s value has surged 14% in October, correlating with Donald Trump’s increasing election odds.
- MicroStrategy’s stock has significantly outperformed Bitcoin, marking it as a leading indicator of potential bullish breakouts.
Bitcoin’s value has seen an impressive 14% rise in October, reaching over $65,000. This surge appears to be linked to the rising odds of Donald Trump’s potential election victory.
Research and brokerage firm Bernstein analysts have pointed towards MicroStrategy as a key indicator of this potential bullish breakout.
Bitcoin and the Presidential Election
Analysts believe that Bitcoin’s recent strength is driven by its correlation with Trump’s rising election odds. Despite both political sides showing support for digital assets, the crypto market bid is stronger when Trump’s odds improve.
According to decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, Trump is currently leading Kamala Harris with odds of 55.6% to 43% to win the presidential election. He is also leading in five out of six swing states.
MicroStrategy’s Performance
MicroStrategy’s stock has significantly outperformed Bitcoin this year, gaining 191% in 2024 compared to Bitcoin’s 55%. The company’s strategy places it at the forefront of Bitcoin’s rise, serving as a corporate indicator of the crypto’s performance.
MicroStrategy has aggressively acquired Bitcoin since 2020, leveraging debt and equity to maximize returns. It now holds 252,220 BTC, valued at over $16 billion, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally.
The company’s stock, like Bitcoin, initially peaked in March this year before entering a correction phase. However, unlike Bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s stock broke out of that consolidation last week and has continued to accelerate.
Meanwhile, Bernstein reports a shift from AI diversifier stocks to pure-play Bitcoin miners amid a potential bullish breakout for the cryptocurrency. AI diversifiers have benefited from a surge in demand for high-performance computing and AI data center hosting services.
