Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price is under pressure and is set to record the worst month since November 2022.
- Despite the bearish trend, some optimists believe the market may eventually resume its bullish trend.
As April comes to a close, the price of Bitcoin remains under selling pressure, reaching a ten-day low. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is on track to have its worst month in a year and a half, since November 2022.
The current geopolitical and macroeconomic instability has put assets like Bitcoin under pressure. The short-term outlook is concerning due to a significant build-up of selling interest. This means that even though the price is only $12,000 away from a new discovery, it seems challenging to reach.
Consolidation Phase and New Developments
Despite the bearish trend, some optimists argue that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, suggesting that the bullish trend experienced in the first quarter may resume. This sentiment is backed by the upcoming launch of Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on April 30, following a similar move by the United States.
Bitcoin has experienced a few relief bounces, but it has failed to surge past $65,000 due to repeated selling pressure. On the downside, Bitcoin bears have not managed to breach below the support of $60,000. Skew, a cryptocurrency analyst, recently stated: “I do see the potential for longer crab between $67K – $58K till proper flow supported breakout”.
Skew also highlighted the importance of the monthly close for Bitcoin’s price, regardless of its final position. He explained that in approximately two days, the 1-month close would occur, and subsequent to that, the monthly and weekly opening levels would serve as crucial reference points.
Upcoming Macroeconomic Events
The immediate success of Bitcoin depends on major macroeconomic events scheduled for this week, including the FOMC meeting on May 1 about the next interest rate decision. Most analysts (95%) believe that the interest rates will remain unchanged due to high inflation numbers.
Other key macro events for the week include jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and May 3. Despite these events, the outlook for Bitcoin and risk assets may remain positive, unless sentiment shifts towards anticipating a significant deterioration in economic conditions. In the worst-case scenario, if Bitcoin’s price loses the support of $58,000, it could fall to $50,000, and even further to $46,000.
