Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of strength, rebounding sharply with a potential return of bullish momentum.
- Crypto analyst Ali Martinez predicts a market top near $208,550 based on the Mayer Multiple.
Bitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating renewed vitality, bouncing back considerably after a tumultuous start to the week that saw billions erased from the global crypto market cap.
The most valuable cryptocurrency hit a daily high of $83,541, and at the time of writing, it was trading at $81,671.81, marking a 6% increase in the past 24 hours.
Potential Bullish Momentum
A significant 28.90% surge in trading volume suggests a retest of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82,630, a crucial resistance level. If this zone is breached, it could signal the resurgence of bullish momentum.
Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, recently referred to the Mayer Multiple, a long-term valuation metric that compares BTC’s price to its 200-day moving average.
According to the Mayer Multiple, Bitcoin could find solid support around $69,500. Moreover, a breakout above $86,900 might pave the way for a market top near $208,550.
His chart indicates that Bitcoin is nearing a historically significant breakout threshold. It sheds light on previous bull cycles where Bitcoin saw significant rallies after breaking above the upper oscillator band (2.4x the 200DMA). BTC is currently approaching that band again, which has often been a precursor to parabolic moves.
Short-Term Momentum and ETF Outflows
In terms of short-term momentum, Bitcoin is trading just below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) on the daily chart, with the bands currently ranging between $77,530 and $89,221.
Bitcoin is quite close to the middle band (20-SMA at $83,376), which aligns closely with the 20-day EMA. If Bitcoin closes above this level and maintains volume, it may attempt another move toward the upper BB resistance near $89,200.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46.72, indicating neutral momentum. However, its recent uptick from oversold territory suggests a potential bullish reversal forming.
If the RSI crosses above 50, it could signal renewed buying interest. Despite the price rally, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience outflows.
On Wednesday, the funds saw $127.2 million in net outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT losing $89.7 million alone. This marked the fifth consecutive day of outflows, totaling $722 million.
However, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reaffirmed his year-end price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin, adding fuel to the bullish fire.
Despite increasing trade tensions and ETF outflows, Hougan argues that the Trump administration’s tariff pause and push for a weaker US dollar could catalyze a Bitcoin breakout.
Steve Miran of the White House Council of Economic Advisers criticized the dollar’s role as a global reserve currency. If the US continues to weaken the greenback, Bitcoin could benefit from its inverse correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY).
