Key Points
- Ethereum (ETH) has underperformed in 2024, with only 36% gains year-to-date, compared to Bitcoin and other altcoins.
- Research suggests Ethereum’s underperformance is likely to continue, with only a 10% chance of breaching the $4,000 milestone by year-end.
In 2024, while Bitcoin and several other altcoins have produced close to three-digit percentage returns, Ethereum has lagged behind with a 36% gain year-to-date.
Compared to its peers in the altcoin space, Ethereum has been an underperformer.
Ethereum’s Performance in 2024
Bitcoin and most altcoins have achieved a new all-time high in 2024. However, Ethereum’s price is still 40% down from its all-time high of $4,841 in 2021.
This indicates that investor interest in Ethereum has been lagging, despite the launch of a spot Ethereum ETF this year.
According to new research from Amberdata, Ethereum’s underperformance is likely to persist until the end of the year.
The data also indicates that Ethereum has only a 10% chance of surpassing the $4,000 mark by year-end, based on the Ethereum options-based probability density function.
Conversely, traders are betting on Bitcoin’s price reaching the $100,000 level.
The likelihood of Ether trading at different price levels over various periods is demonstrated by the Probability Density Function (PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF).
This data is derived from Ether options trading activity on Deribit, a leading cryptocurrency options exchange.
Why Ethereum Price Is Not Going to $4,000?
Currently, traders are pricing in only a 10% probability of Ether surpassing the $4,000 mark by the December 27 expiry.
This suggests that the anticipated regulatory pivot under Trump’s presidency has not substantially boosted investor confidence in Ethereum, despite its positive impact on DeFi-focused tokens.
Furthermore, Amberdata attributes the poor outlook for Ethereum to its weak fundamentals.
Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, Greg Magadini, stated that Ethereum faces serious headwinds as the value proposition of “sound money” has flipped to inflation supply.
He believes that this is significantly dragging prices down.
Additionally, inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs have slowed a week after Donald Trump’s victory. Over the last three days, the net flows have once again turned negative.
Despite this, some market analysts remain bullish about Ethereum.
Interestingly, they don’t just expect a new all-time high but rather the Ethereum price giving 3x returns from here onwards.
