Key Points
- Bitcoin’s current trading price has led to speculation of a bear market, but some analysts suggest on-chain metrics indicate otherwise.
- Analysts believe Bitcoin is significantly undervalued and anticipate a major price surge in the future.
Bitcoin, currently trading around $84,000, is approximately 23% below its all-time high of $109,114, achieved in January 2025. This price correction has sparked discussions about a potential bear phase in the crypto market. Nonetheless, experienced analysts are pointing to on-chain metrics that suggest a different scenario.
The bearish sentiment gained momentum when CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju speculated that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be finished. He forecasted a 6-12 month period of sideways or bearish price action, attributing this to a lack of new liquidity and increased whale selling.
Clarifying the Prediction
However, Ju later clarified in a post that he did not predict a major crash, but rather an extended period of consolidation. According to him, new liquidity channels and reduced contagion risks make a 70% drop unlikely. Instead, he expects a wide-range sideways movement, providing both shorting and buying opportunities.
Ju also suggested that many retail investors are investing in Bitcoin ETFs, which does not directly reflect on on-chain metrics. He reported that about 80% of spot ETF inflows are driven by retail. He suggested that once macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rate cuts, improve, fresh liquidity could trigger a new buying wave.
Bitcoin Undervalued?
Merlijn, a well-known crypto analyst, holds an even more bullish outlook. He recently stated that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued. According to him, based on previous cycles, BTC should be trading around $250,000 at this stage, implying that the largest price surge could still be ahead.
In a separate post, Merlijn noted that BTC recently bounced off the 50-week Exponential Moving Average with a perfect bullish cross on the Stochastic RSI. Historically, such patterns have led to parabolic price moves.
On the daily BTC price chart, Bitcoin is trading near the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) around $85,061, suggesting a phase of consolidation. The upper and lower bands are slightly expanding, which could result in increased volatility. A break above $92,155 (upper band) could signal a bullish breakout.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI is at 45.6, indicating neutral momentum but nearing oversold territory. A further drop in RSI could signal a buying opportunity.
Despite the long-term bullish optimism, analysts predict potential pullback in the short-term. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar recently warned of a BTC price drop to $73,700, a key support level. He suggested that Bitcoin’s reaction at this level will be crucial in determining its trajectory for the next few months.
