Key Points
- Over 20,000 Bitcoin have been moved out of long-term holders’ wallets, coinciding with a drop in Bitcoin’s value.
- Miners are under financial pressure, with profitability metrics dipping and mining difficulty rising.
There has been a significant movement of over 20,000 Bitcoin (BTC) out of the wallets of long-term holders in the past few days. This shift coincides with a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value, with the cryptocurrency currently trading at around $96,600, a decrease of 7.5% over the past week.
This substantial Bitcoin movement was highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, who suggested that such large-scale shifts by whales could create new market opportunities.
Long-term Holder SOPR
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), a key metric that measures the profitability of coins held for more than 155 days, currently stands at 3.5. This indicates that many investors are selling at a profit, often a bullish signal, as values above 1 show.
Pressure on Miners
Miners are currently facing a period of extreme financial pressure, with profitability metrics dipping into the “extremely underpaid” zone. The increasing difficulty of mining, compounded by Bitcoin’s post-halving price decline, has made operations less sustainable. Despite the growing mining hashrate, returns remain low, leading miners towards heavy selling.
Historically, such situations have marked major accumulation zones. Miner-to-exchange flows have reached extreme levels, suggesting a wave of capitulation. When miners are forced to sell heavily, it often signals a temporary shakeout, potentially leading to positive mid-term price corrections.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price currently hovers near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions. A potential mean reversion to the $101,500 resistance level is possible if buying interest picks up.
If Bitcoin breaks above the immediate resistance at $98,000, it could retest the upper Bollinger Band at $107,000. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the signal line below the MACD line and red histograms forming, suggesting ongoing downward momentum.
Support lies around $95,500, and a failure to hold this level may push Bitcoin towards $90,000 or lower. The ongoing price dip has sent the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 44 levels, signaling fear among investors. Adding to market anxieties, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently projected that Bitcoin could still drop to $70,000-$75,000 in the near future.
Despite short-term bearish trends, seasoned investors see this phase as an accumulation opportunity, aligning with historical patterns where miner capitulation often precedes recovery.
