Key Points
- Physicist Giovanni Santostasi predicts Bitcoin could reach $10 million by 2045 using the power law model.
- The power law model suggests a mathematical relationship between Bitcoin’s price and time.
Physicist Giovanni Santostasi has made a bold prediction about the future price of Bitcoin (BTC) using a unique model.
According to Santostasi’s power law model, Bitcoin could potentially reach an astonishing $10 million per coin by 2045.
The Power Law Model
Santostasi first introduced the power law model in 2018 on the r/Bitcoin subreddit.
The model suggests that Bitcoin’s price follows a mathematical relationship where one variable (price) is connected to another variable (time) through a fixed power or exponent.
In the short term, Santostasi’s model predicts that Bitcoin might peak at around $210,000 by January 2026 before dropping to about $60,000.
However, the most remarkable projection is the long-term forecast of $10 million per bitcoin by 2045, which implies a potential increase of over 6,300% from current levels.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Price Volatility
The power law model challenges the conventional belief that the coin’s price grows exponentially.
Instead, Santostasi’s logarithmic power law accounts for the significant price volatility and pullbacks that BTC has experienced.
Mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger supports the power law model and suggests that the BTC market cap will surpass gold by 2033 if it continues to follow the model.
This implies a price of over $1 million per bitcoin.
Critics, however, question the reliability of any mathematical model attempting to predict Bitcoin’s price years into the future.
They argue that unforeseen events, regulatory actions, or technological advancements could disrupt the trajectory at any point.
Santostasi defends his power law model, stating that it offers a more robust framework than other popular models like the stock-to-flow model.
He believes the logarithmic nature of the power law better captures Bitcoin’s ups and downs compared to models assuming constant exponential growth rates.
Only time will reveal the accuracy of the power law’s long-term Bitcoin price prediction.
Regardless, the model has ignited an intriguing debate about how to forecast the future price of the pioneering cryptocurrency.
While Bitcoin’s volatility makes forecasting challenging, bold predictions like Santostasi’s $10 million projection attract attention from investors, who increasingly perceive Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and store of value.
