Key Points
- Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could reach $125K under a Trump presidency and $75K if Harris wins.
- The bank’s analysis suggests regulatory progress and investor interest will drive Bitcoin’s price surge regardless of election outcome.
Standard Chartered has issued a report predicting a significant price surge for Bitcoin by the end of 2024, irrespective of the result of the US election. The report, published as the investment bank resumed coverage of the crypto sector, suggests Bitcoin could reach a high of $125,000 if Donald Trump wins the presidential race, or $75,000 if Kamala Harris is victorious.
Impact of the Election on Bitcoin’s Price
The bank’s analysis indicates that while the election result is significant, its impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory may be exaggerated. The report emphasizes that, driven by several catalysts, Bitcoin’s price is set to ascend to new all-time highs regardless of the election outcome. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, states that regulatory progress, especially the relaxation of strict banking regulations on digital assets, will continue no matter who occupies the office in 2025.
The pace of this progress, however, is expected to differ. Under a Trump presidency, regulatory reforms such as repealing the strict SAB 121 accounting rules on banks’ digital assets holdings, could be expedited. Conversely, the report foresees a slower path towards regulatory clarity under a Harris presidency, which could initially trigger some market sell-off before investors re-enter, anticipating long-term positive changes.
Other Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price
Beyond regulatory reforms, other factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s positive outlook. The report identifies a re-steepening of the US Treasury curve as building positive momentum for Bitcoin’s price. Standard Chartered remains bullish, noting that both institutional and retail investors continue to express interest in Bitcoin, with some using price dips as an entry point into the market.
Despite these price predictions, Kendrick cautions that the market could experience some volatility, particularly if Harris wins, with Bitcoin potentially facing an initial sell-off. However, this dip is expected to be temporary, as the long-term drivers, including regulatory reforms and increasing institutional adoption, remain intact.
Market Sentiment and Predictive Markets
Market sentiment around the election and Bitcoin’s future price has also been mirrored in platforms like Polymarket, where Harris currently holds a slim lead in prediction markets over Trump. This follows the latest US presidential debate, which bolstered her odds of victory. Even though neither candidate mentioned crypto during the debate, both have made their positions on the digital asset space known, with Trump maintaining a more pro-Bitcoin stance.
With the election less than two months away, both the political and crypto communities are closely monitoring how events unfold. Standard Chartered’s forecast has sparked discussions about how regulatory developments and broader market trends will shape the future of Bitcoin. The crypto world, while optimistic, remains cautious about potential short-term volatility depending on the election outcome.
