Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) price faces significant resistance at around $64K, with potential reversal trends appearing in the market.
- Bitcoin whales’ mixed on-chain activities and the high demand from US spot BTC ETFs are influencing the BTC market.
Bitcoin’s price has encountered a strong resistance level of approximately $64K, aligning with the 200-day Moving Average (MA) in recent times. In a four-hour timeframe, there’s a possible reversal trend being formed, marked by a rising trend along with a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The daily death-cross between the 50 and 200 MA is already impacting the bullish sentiment. Experienced trader Peter Brandt warns traders about a midterm bearish outlook. Brandt suggests that for the macro bearish trend that started in early March to be invalidated, Bitcoin’s price must consistently close above the July high of roughly $69,831.
Bitcoin’s Market Outlook
Brandt further noted that despite positive fundamentals, the BTC price has been forming an expanding triangle with lower highs and lower lows. In the midterm, if Bitcoin’s price holds above the support level of around $63.3k, it could rally toward $65.5K. However, if the bears overpower the buyers in the upcoming days, traders should anticipate a drop below $60k.
According to on-chain data analysis, some large investors, led by Bitcoin miners, have been selling their holdings, while others have been purchasing more. Data from Santiment reveals that Bitcoin miners have sold over 20k Bitcoin, valued at over $1.3 billion, in the past 24 hours.
US Spot BTC ETFs Influence Bitcoin Market
Nevertheless, the supply of Bitcoin in centralized exchanges has decreased by nearly 100k units, valued at over $6.4 billion, in the past 30 days. This decline in Bitcoin supply in centralized exchanges can be directly linked to the high demand from US spot BTC ETF issuers. Latest market data shows that the US spot BTC ETFs have registered almost $1 billion in cash inflows over the past three weeks.
On Wednesday, the US spot BTC ETFs recorded net cash inflows of about $106 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with a total of around $184 million. However, Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) registered a net cash outflow of about $33 million and $47 million respectively on Wednesday.
Bitcoin whales’ mixed reactions have negatively impacted the bullish midterm sentiment. As we approach the end of the turbulent September, the fear of further crypto capitulation has significantly reduced. Bitcoin’s fear and greed index is around 50 percent, indicating market neutrality, as the underlying value traded above $63K.
The upcoming US 2024 elections, amid the shifting economic climate, are expected to trigger a fresh crypto bull run in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, Gold and major stock indexes have been on a rising trend, with the former rallying to a new all-time high earlier today.
