Key Points
- 21 US states have bills proposing a portion of public funds be allocated to Bitcoin.
- VanEck report suggests approval of these bills could generate a minimum of $23B in Bitcoin demand.
The race to establish Bitcoin reserves in the US has gained momentum, with 21 states now having active bills proposing to allocate a portion of their public funds to Bitcoin.
A report by VanEck suggests that if these bills are approved, it could result in at least $23B in Bitcoin demand. Mathew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, stated that this demand could potentially increase if legislation progresses to the next stages.
State Proposals and Leading States
Most state proposals are considering a 1%-10% fund allocation to Bitcoin to diversify their reserves.
Data tracked by Bitcoin Laws indicates that most Bitcoin reserve bills are either at the introduction level or second reading. However, none have been enacted into law as of yet.
Utah and Arizona are leading other states in terms of the progress of their bills. Utah’s bill has proceeded to the second reading stage, and its fate could be determined by the final voting in the chamber before it’s adopted and enacted as law. Arizona and Oklahoma are tied for the second position, with their bills in the first reading.
However, Bitcoin reserve bills in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota have hit dead-ends. It’s worth noting that Sigel’s analysis only covers estimates from Bitcoin reserves and doesn’t include state pension funds.
Since some proposals also include separate allocations to pension funds, the demand could be explosive if they are ratified and adopted.
On the national level, the Bitcoin reserve will depend on the outcome of the digital asset working group created by President Donald Trump. The group was given about 6 months to develop a legislative framework for the same, per the President’s executive order.
Market Predictions
Interestingly, the markets haven’t fully priced a national US Bitcoin reserve. According to the prediction site Kalshi, the odds of such an outcome this year were 54%. Polymarket chances for the same were below 40% as of this writing.
Taken together, the data from the prediction sites suggested the market wasn’t overly optimistic about a national Bitcoin reserve this year.
By extension, this meant that President Trump’s surprise creation of the Bitcoin reserve could massively fuel the Bitcoin rally.
