Bitcoin ended H1 2026 with rare on-chain buy signals as CryptoQuant highlights a potential DCA opportunity while spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return.
Bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, has ended its first half of 2026 under heavy pressure after falling by about 42% from its 2026 high. Despite the sharp correction, CryptoQuant says three rare on-chain indicators are now flashing potential accumulation signals.
With Bitcoin trading around $62,649, the firm believes the market may have already formed its bottom as ETF inflows begin returning.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's three major on-chain indicators ended June at levels that have historically appeared near important market bottoms.
By June 30, Bitcoin's Supply in Loss climbed to 10 million BTC, the Realized Cap reached $1.06 trillion, while the Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.61.
"This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and could suggest a potential medium- to long-term DCA accumulation opportunity."
The report comes after Bitcoin fell about 42% from its 2026 high of $97,860 to around $57,000, reflecting heavy selling pressure and weaker market sentiment.
One of the clearest signs of market stress is the sharp rise in Bitcoin supply held at a loss.
CryptoQuant data shows more than 10 million BTC are now worth less than the price investors originally paid for them. The last time this happened after Bitcoin reached an all-time high was during the December 2018 and October 2022 bear markets.
Both periods eventually became major accumulation zones before Bitcoin started its next bull run.
Bitcoin reached a record high of around $126,000 in October 2025 before correcting to nearly $58,000 by the end of June. According to CryptoQuant, the current level of unrealized losses is similar to previous cycle lows, suggesting many investors are once again holding through heavy losses instead of selling.
For long-term investors using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, the research firm believes these conditions could represent an attractive accumulation zone.
Another important signal comes from Bitcoin's Realized Cap, one of the most widely followed on-chain indicators.
Following Bitcoin's fourth halving in April 2024, the indicator remained in a strong uptrend as the market rallied toward new all-time highs. However, momentum gradually weakened after Bitcoin peaked near $126,000.
Even after Bitcoin recovered from around $60,000 to $80,000 earlier this year, the realized cap continued printing bearish monthly candles, suggesting the broader market has not fully regained strength.
By the end of June, Bitcoin's Realized Cap stood at approximately $1.06 trillion, reflecting a market that is still searching for a stronger foundation before its next major move.
The weakness is no longer limited to short-term traders.
CryptoQuant's Long-Term Holder SOPR closed June at 0.61, meaning long-term Bitcoin holders are, on average, realizing losses (selling below their purchase price).
Historically, this has been a very rare event. The last time the monthly SOPR remained below 1 for several consecutive months was during October 2022, when Bitcoin traded near $20,000 before beginning its next recovery.
Although long-term holders have usually been the strongest group of investors, the latest data suggests even experienced Bitcoin owners are feeling the pressure from recent price declines.
While on-chain data continues to show heavy investor losses, institutional investors have started returning to Bitcoin.
After eight consecutive weeks of outflows that removed more than $8.2 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the trend has finally started to reverse.
On July 2, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $222 million in fresh inflows, followed by another $265.7 million on July 6 and $21.5 million on July 7.
Together, about $510 million was returned to Bitcoin ETFs within three trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC attracting most of the new investments.
The return of institutional buying comes as Bitcoin continues trading below its previous highs, suggesting some large investors are beginning to accumulate despite ongoing market uncertainty.
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