Crypto
Bitcoin Is Witnessing The Rare Signal That Marked The 2025 Bull Run
Bitcoin futures and ETF flows are flashing renewed strength, but crowded longs could turn the emerging bullish signal into a risk.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingBitcoin futures and ETF flows are flashing renewed strength, but crowded longs could turn the emerging bullish signal into a risk.
The resurgence of the crypto market continues to be uncertain as Bitcoin is still in limbo. However, even in the current state where recovery seems like a faraway thought, it seems like signs of a bounce back are appearing.
One such sign is a rare signal that was observed every time BTC last shot up. Could be a hint that the crypto king is preparing for a rally?
Leveraged funds on CME just flipped net long BTC futures, a phenomenon that is very rare. The reason why this is rare is that the basis trade generally keeps them structurally short. It is unlikely for a trade to be net long, resulting in the chart being red for years.
However, the few occurrences where the net BTC futures turned long signalled a surge in price. This was observed in April 2025 and March 2026, right before the price surge, the former of which resulted in the eventual ATH formation.
However, the question is, could this be a bane for BTC? The question arises because historically, excessively long or short positioning has triggered a liquidation cascade.
At present, more than 361,000 BTC, roughly $23.4 billion, is positioned on the long side across exchanges, compared with 264,000 BTC, around $17.14 billion, on the short side. Such imbalances in favor of long contracts are common during bullish trends.
But the problem is that excessively long or short positioning tends to make the market vulnerable to liquidation. Right before FTX collapsed, BTC longs hit their then all-time high, as well as during the August 2023 sell-off and other similar instances.
At present, the Futures market is dominated by longs, constituting 57.62% of all the positions. Short positions, on the other hand, make up for 42.38% of the market. Thus, if the extremely large long positions were to liquidate, the price would take a hit, falling sharply.
Thus, the right bull signal would be when shorts’ concentration is stronger in comparison to longs.
Generally, institutions are hailed as the saviors of an asset as they bring in huge capital flows. However, with other external factors and geopolitical tensions, this hope diminished. But it seems like the hope could strengthen again, considering CMF just broke above the neutral line.
This indicator measures the flow of money from large and institutional holders. The last time CMF broke above the neutral line was seen in January 2023, after which the bull run followed.
Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF flows just marked the highest weekly inflows since mid-April. The ETFs collectively registered $853.54 million in inflows, posting a 4-month high. This was seen as a sign of the resurgence of ETFs. However, this is a hollow flow as most of 81.4% of the flow is concentrated in IBIT alone.
Many of the remaining ETFs registered less than $10 million or even $0 in inflows. At the same time, Hashdex is preparing to shut down its Bitcoin ETF (ticker - DEFI) after a terrible performance, holding only $14.5 million in BTC since its launch. For scale, BlackRock holds $47.08 billion in BTC.
This might affect how capital travels to Bitcoin and bear an impact on the price as well.
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