Crypto
Bitcoin Price Faces Death Cross Amid $1.6 Billion ETF Outflows
Bitcoin's latest decline has exposed deeper market weakness, with institutional exits and on-chain losses raising fresh concerns.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingBitcoin's latest decline has exposed deeper market weakness, with institutional exits and on-chain losses raising fresh concerns.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $70,000 on Friday, its first dip under that level since August. The decline has wiped out roughly 16% since early November, driven by heavy ETF redemptions and weakening on-chain demand.
A larger threat is now forming on the daily chart, where key moving averages are converging.
BTC trades near $69,194 after losing both the $72,294 and $70,000 levels in consecutive sessions. The 50-day EMA has been sliding since mid-October, narrowing the gap with the 200-day EMA to roughly $1,900.
A death cross forms when the shorter average falls below the longer one, signaling fading medium-term momentum.
The price already sits about 11.5% below the 50-day EMA, after falling beneath the 200-day EMA in early November. That long-term average, near $76,300, now acts as overhead resistance for any recovery attempt. The 50-day EMA, which tracks recent trend strength, has already rolled over, while the 200-day EMA remains nearly flat.
If the cross is confirmed, sellers could target $68,830, followed by $67,000 and $65,887. Losing those supports would expose the $65,000 mark, the upper edge of the summer consolidation range. Bitcoin spent 79 days between roughly $60,000 and $65,000 before the August breakout.
Bulls would need to reclaim $72,294 and $75,000 to ease the pressure.
Bitcoin ETFs logged their worst week in over five months, with over $1.6 billion leaving in seven days. That figure nears June's $1.79 billion exodus. The pace of outflows suggests institutional appetite is cooling as prices fall.
A sustained exodus removes a key source of spot demand, which helped push Bitcoin above $85,000 in September.
While macro financial markets have entered a period of uncertainty, adding pressure to risk assets, on-chain investors have turned bearish too. This is visible in the realized profit/loss ratio dropping to a four-month low.
Glassnode data shows over $905 million in net realized losses on Thursday, the largest daily loss since early August. Profit-taking above $2 billion on single days in September and October has given way to loss-taking. The deepest realized loss in months shows holders are surrendering positions at lower prices. Such selling signals panic, as investors exit at a loss while expecting further declines.
Short-term holders (STHs) are among the most vulnerable groups right now, as their collective holdings are underwater. Their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen to about -0.05, down from nearly 0.14 in late September. Many likely bought during the autumn rally above $80,000. These coins carry a higher cost basis than long-term holdings, making their owners quicker to sell when prices slide.
The last time STHs capitulated, the following bearishness led to BTC's collapse in May. NUPL slipped below zero in late May and sank toward -0.23 by June, as prices approached $58,000. Hopefully, a similar instance isn't repeated here.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 25.81, below the oversold threshold of 30. That reading could act as a catalyst, provided investor fear and panic dissipate.
In June, a comparable oversold dip preceded a long consolidation before the August rally.
A daily close back above $70,000 would offer the first sign of stabilization. Failure to hold $68,830 would keep the death cross scenario firmly in play. Until sentiment stabilizes, the path of least resistance remains tilted toward further downside.
No comments yet
