Bitcoin’s Record Holder Supply May Not Be Bullish After All, CryptoQuant Warns

Bitcoin is holding above the $73,000 level, but fresh on-chain data suggests the market may be facing a different problem than most investors realize. While a record amount of Bitcoin is now sitting in long-term holder wallets, analysts at CryptoQuant say this widely celebrated metric could actually be masking a growing shortage of new buyers entering the market.

The finding comes as Bitcoin trades around $73,500, roughly 10% below the highs seen earlier this month.

Record Bitcoin Holder Supply Reaches New High

According to CryptoQuant, approximately 15.8 million BTC is now classified as long-term holder supply, the highest level ever recorded. Traditionally, rising long-term holder supply is considered bullish because it means investors are removing coins from active circulation and holding them for extended periods. During strong bull markets, new buyers absorb Bitcoin from existing holders and eventually become long-term holders themselves.

This process reduces available supply while demand continues growing, creating favorable conditions for higher prices.

However, CryptoQuant argues that today's market looks different.

Instead of reflecting aggressive accumulation, the record holder supply may simply show that fewer coins are moving throughout the network because new buyers are not entering the market at the same pace as before.

Short-Term Bitcoin Supply Drops Sharply

One of the biggest signals supporting this view comes from the sharp decline in short-term holder supply. CryptoQuant estimates that short-term holder balances have fallen by around 2.2 million BTC since December.

Nearly 900,000 BTC of that decline came from Coinbase reserves that simply aged beyond the 155-day threshold used to classify coins as long-term holdings.

While this may seem like a technical detail, analysts say it highlights a key issue.

Many coins are not being actively bought and sold. Instead, they are simply sitting idle for longer periods and automatically moving into the long-term holder category. This means the record long-term supply may reflect lower market activity rather than growing investor conviction.

Whale and Institutional Demand Shows Signs of Weakness

The report also points to slowing activity among large Bitcoin holders. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, often referred to as whales, are now shrinking year-over-year at the fastest pace seen in 2026.

Meanwhile, monthly growth in whale balances has remained almost flat since February.

CryptoQuant also highlighted weakness among so-called "dolphins," wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC.

This group is especially important because it includes many spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers. Annual growth in dolphin balances has slowed significantly after peaking in October 2025, when monthly Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $3.4 billion.

The slowdown suggests institutional demand is no longer providing the same support it did during earlier stages of the rally.

ETF Flows and Spot Demand Continue Cooling

Other market indicators are telling a similar story. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode recently reported that spot demand remains soft and ETF inflows have weakened compared to earlier highs.

According to the firm, current capital inflows are not strong enough to support a sustained breakout above key Bitcoin cost-basis levels around $78,000.

Glassnode's Realized Profit/Loss Ratio currently sits at 1.56. Historically, readings between 2 and 5 have been associated with the early stages of stronger bull markets.

The current reading suggests investors remain cautious despite Bitcoin holding above major support levels.

Prediction Markets Expect Sideways Trading

Prediction markets are also showing limited optimism. Data from Polymarket indicates an 84% probability that Bitcoin will close within the $72,000 to $76,000 range by the end of the month.

That forecast reflects expectations of consolidation rather than a major breakout or sharp selloff.

Taken together, the data paints a market that is not necessarily bearish but is struggling to attract fresh participation.

Bitcoin remains above $70,000 and long-term holders continue controlling a record share of supply. However, CryptoQuant believes the bigger issue is that new buyers are not arriving fast enough to drive the next leg higher.