CryptoQuant says Bitcoin whales are accumulating again, but analysts warn the $70K level could decide whether BTC enters a new bull rally or faces selling.
Bitcoin may be showing the first signs of its next major rally, according to new CryptoQuant data. Large investors are buying aggressively again, but analysts say one important price level could decide what happens next.
While whale accumulation looks bullish, $70,000 may become a critical test before Bitcoin can move into a stronger uptrend.
Bitcoin was trading at around $65,000 at press time, slightly higher than over the past 24 hours. At the same time, CryptoQuant data shows that more than 38,000 BTC recently flowed into accumulation addresses, one of the biggest inflows recorded in recent months.
These wallets are usually linked to long-term investors and over-the-counter (OTC) transactions rather than active traders. Historically, large inflows into these addresses have often appeared before major market recoveries.
The latest CryptoQuant chart also shows a steady rise in Bitcoin moving into accumulation wallets since June, with several sharp accumulation spikes in recent weeks. The increased buying activity amid weak price action is interesting. At first glance, this points to growing confidence among large investors.
Another CryptoQuant analysis (by verified analyst CW8900) also suggests Bitcoin may be entering the second phase of its current bull cycle.
The chart tracking Long-Term Holder (LTH) and Short-Term Holder (STH) supply shows that long-term investors now control 16 million BTC, the highest level on record.
In previous market cycles, long-term holders first sold part of their holdings during the early stages of a rally. They then accumulated heavily during market corrections before a much stronger second rally began.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin followed a similar pattern between January 2023 and December 2025, when long-term holders repeatedly bought during price drops while reducing their selling activity.
Now, that accumulation phase appears to be coming to an end. The latest data shows long-term holder supply has started to decline slightly, a pattern that has historically appeared just before Bitcoin entered its strongest price rallies.
While the pattern resembles previous bull markets, CryptoQuant says this cycle has taken much longer to develop.
The gap between Bitcoin's first and second rally lasted about eight months during the 2013 cycle, 17 months in 2017, and 16 months in 2021.
This time, more than 31 months have passed since the first rally began.
According to the analyst, the delay may be linked to major changes in the market, including the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, rising institutional demand, and continued buying by new whale investors.
These factors have changed Bitcoin's market structure compared with earlier cycles.
Despite the strong buying activity, CryptoQuant data suggests investors should remain cautious.
The firm notes that the average realized price of these accumulation addresses is now around $70,000, while Bitcoin is still trading near $64,800.
That creates two very different possibilities.
The bullish case is that whales are buying because they expect Bitcoin to move much higher in the coming months. If that happens, the current accumulation phase could become the foundation for the next major bull market.
However, there is another possibility. Some whales may simply be lowering their average buying price. If Bitcoin climbs back to around $70,000, they could decide to sell near their break-even point instead of holding for another rally.
In other words, today's accumulation does not automatically mean investors plan to hold for years. It could also be strategic buying before exiting once prices recover. Hence, $70,000 could become the market's biggest decision zone.
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