Japan’s Next BOJ Meeting Could Crash Bitcoin and Stock Market

Quick Take:

• USD/JPY has climbed back above 160, it could lead to a major bitcoin crash, but how?
• Investors are watching the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for 15 June.
• A stronger yen could force investors to liquidate carry trades that have supported stocks, crypto, and other risk assets.

The upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy meeting has put the entire Bitcoin and global financial markets under stress. Attention shifted towards the USD/JPY currency pair as it jumped back above 160. This key level previously prompted Japanese authorities to step in and support the yen.

Market experts say that a hike could trigger volatility across stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Why Is USD/JPY Above 160, Raising Concerns?

The USD/JPY exchange rate measures how many Japanese yen are needed to buy one U.S. dollar. When the pair rises above 160, it signals a weaker yen.

Japan faced a similar situation in 2024 when the yen fell sharply against the dollar. Meanwhile, authorities intervened in currency markets by selling dollars and buying yen in an effort to stabilize the exchange rate.

At the time, Japan reportedly spent nearly $73 billion trying to defend the yen. Perhaps those actions caused the yen to strengthen quickly, creating problems for investors using a strategy known as the yen carry trade.

What Is the Yen Carry Trade?

The yen carry trade has been one of the most widely used investment strategies in global markets for years.

Investors borrow Japanese yen at low interest rates, convert the funds into other currencies, and invest in assets that offer higher returns. These investments often include U.S. stocks, government bonds, technology shares, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC).

The strategy works best when Japanese interest rates remain low, and the yen stays weak.

However, when the yen suddenly strengthens, investors face higher repayment costs on their borrowed funds. To reduce risk, many are forced to sell assets and close their positions thus triggering either a Bitcoin crash or larger market upheaval.

Why the Upcoming BOJ Meeting Matters

Attention is now shifting to the June 15-16 Bank of Japan meeting, where markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

If approved, Japan's benchmark interest rate would rise from 0.75% to 1.0%, marking another step away from the ultra-loose policies that supported the carry trade for years.

Following major rate increases since 2024, Bitcoin experienced corrections ranging from roughly 20% to more than 30%.

The pressure is also increasing because Japan remains heavily dependent on imported energy.

Bitcoin Crash History With BOJ

Crypto traders are paying close attention because previous BOJ tightening cycles were followed by significant Bitcoin price crash.

• Following the March 2024 rate hike, Bitcoin fell around 23%.
• After the July 2024 hike, Bitcoin dropped roughly 25% to 30%.
• The January 2025 hike was followed by a decline of approximately 31%.
• Bitcoin also fell more than 25% after the December 2025 tightening move.

The situation becomes more important because the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on 16-17 June after the BOJ.

If both the BOJ and Federal Reserve signal tighter monetary policy during the same week, global liquidity conditions could become less supportive for risk assets.

For Bitcoin, the biggest risk is not necessarily a rate hike itself but the possibility of a broader carry trade unwind.