Markets
S&P 500 Nears Record Highs, Bitcoin Prepares For Bull Run
S&P 500 nears its record while Bitcoin tests $86,663, setting up a potentially decisive move toward $100,000.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingS&P 500 nears its record while Bitcoin tests $86,663, setting up a potentially decisive move toward $100,000.
The S&P 500 ended Monday's session at 7,773.95, just 0.55% below its all-time high of 7,816.70. Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades near $86,218 and is pressing against a resistance level that could decide its next major move.
Both rallies are unfolding weeks before the US midterm elections on November 3, a date markets have historically welcomed.
With the midterms around the corner, investors are positioning for a favorable market response. The S&P 500 sits at the center of that trade, rising 0.66% on the latest session. The index printed an intraday high of 7,794.35, leaving the record only a short step away.
A move above 7,816.70 would confirm a new all-time high and extend the broader uptrend. Immediate support lies at 7,687.67, with deeper levels at 7,629.06 and 7,545.99. Buyers defended the 7,629.06 area recently, which keeps the short-term structure constructive.
A breakout in equities typically lifts risk appetite across asset classes. Crypto has often followed that lead, especially when volatility stays low and liquidity improves. That correlation explains why Bitcoin traders are tracking the S&P 500 so closely this week.
This strength is bound to spill over into Bitcoin, which trades at $86,218.7. BTC sits at the edge of a Parabolic Curve pattern, with price compressing against resistance. The structure shows three distinct bases, the latest forming between $81,209 and $86,663.
The curve began after July's low near $58,000 and has steepened with each consolidation. A close above $86,663 would confirm the breakout. That would open the path toward $100,000, roughly 16% higher. Failure to break out could send price back to $81,209, with $75,491 as the next floor.
On-chain data adds context, with active addresses at 558.6K. That is far below the 1.3M peak from earlier cycles.
Network activity also stayed elevated in the post-midterm windows of 2015, 2019, and 2023. Rising usage alongside a price breakout would strengthen the bullish case.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 twelve-month periods following US midterm elections, averaging 15.4%. Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms.
However, it fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. Three observations cannot establish a reliable rule.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin has fared well in October, historically speaking. Returns average 13.2%, with a median gain of 10.8%. 10 of the 15 completed Octobers since 2011 closed green. October 2026 is currently up 3.26%.
Octobers during the middle years were mixed, though. The month fell in 2014 and 2018, but gained 5.55% in 2022. Seasonality supports the case, yet it does not guarantee the outcome.
Additionally, Bitcoin has bottomed in almost the exact same part of the four-year cycle every time. Analyst Quinten Francois has highlighted this recurring pattern on X.
This makes BTC likely immune from any deep drawdown for now, though no cycle repeats perfectly.
The Fed adds another tailwind ahead of its October 28 meeting. Markets price an 80.6% chance that rates hold at 3.75% to 4.00%. Odds of a hike to 4.00% to 4.25% have fallen to 19.4%, easing pressure on risk assets.
If the S&P 500 sets a record and Bitcoin clears $86,663, the setup points toward $100,000. Until then, $81,209 remains the level bulls must hold.
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