Standard Chartered analyst says Bitcoin's drop to $59,000 likely marked the bottom. The bank is maintaining its year-end price targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.
Quick Take:
Standard Chartered remains one of the most bullish voices on crypto despite months of market weakness. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research, believes the recent correction has likely run its course and that Bitcoin's fall to around $59,000 marked the bottom of the current cycle.
As a result, the bank is keeping its ambitious year-end forecasts of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.
According to Kendrick, several indicators suggest the recent sell-off was a temporary shakeout rather than the start of a deeper bear market.
"Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," Kendrick said while discussing the market outlook.
Bitcoin has already fallen more than 50% from its all-time high of $126,000, a correction large enough to reset market sentiment and remove excess speculation.
More importantly, he believes some of the biggest sources of selling pressure are now fading. One of them was the wave of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, which saw more than $5.7 billion leave funds since May.
While maintaining his bullish outlook, Kendrick says the recovery still needs confirmation. The analyst is watching three key indicators that could support Bitcoin's path toward $100,000.
While Kendrick believes Bitcoin's drop to $59,000 marked the end of the current crypto winter, not every analyst agrees.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently pointed to Bitcoin's MVRV Pricing Bands, a metric often used to identify major market bottoms. According to his analysis, the strongest long-term accumulation zone currently sits between $53,900 and $43,130.
"The best risk-reward opportunities typically emerge when Bitcoin drops into the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands."
The lower band is currently positioned near $43,200, a level that has historically acted as a cycle floor during major market corrections. His analysis suggests Bitcoin could still face additional downside before establishing a definitive bottom if selling pressure returns.
While Bitcoin remains Standard Chartered's top market indicator, Kendrick believes Ethereum may have even greater upside potential from current levels.
The bank continues to maintain its $4,000 Ethereum target despite ETH trading near $1,650. A recovery in ETF demand, improving market sentiment, and renewed institutional participation could help drive Ethereum higher alongside Bitcoin.
On the flipside, Martinez is even more cautious on Ethereum.
While Standard Chartered maintains its $4,000 Ethereum target, the analyst notes that ETH has repeatedly failed to reclaim the important $1,700 resistance level.
He also pointed to Ethereum's Delta Price model, which compares investor cost basis with miner production costs. Historically, the indicator has helped identify major accumulation zones during bear markets.
According to the model, Ethereum's deepest historical value zone currently sits near $700.
That does not necessarily mean ETH will revisit those levels, but it shows that some analysts still see downside risks even as others begin calling for a market recovery.
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