Key Points
- 100 days post the Bitcoin halving event, the cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility and strong inflows in the Bitcoin ETF.
- Analysts predict a higher probability of Bitcoin rallying to $100,000 in the second half of 2024.
Today, the Bitcoin blockchain network marks a significant milestone – 100 days since this year’s Bitcoin halving event.
The past 100 days have seen the Bitcoin price undergo significant volatility, coupled with substantial inflows in the newly launched spot Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin Halving and its Impact
Post the Bitcoin halving event, the subsequent quarter saw a notable Bitcoin miner capitulation as miners sold off their Bitcoin holdings to cover operational costs.
However, in recent weeks, this BTC miner capitulation has decelerated, reducing the selling pressure on the asset.
Simultaneously, catalysts such as the recently held Bitcoin Conference and the impending US elections are driving the Bitcoin price rally.
Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, stated that the halving-induced supply deficit should start taking effect from now on.
Dragosch’s conclusion is based on the analysis of performance data from the three previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
The research revealed that the mean excess performance increases significantly 100 days post-halving and becomes statistically significant, with T-values exceeding 2%.
Bitcoin Price Predictions
From the lows of $53,900 in early July, the Bitcoin price has staged a strong recovery all the way to $70,000 around the Bitcoin conference event.
As we draw closer to the US elections, analysts predict greater volatility for BTC.
On-chain analyst Spot on Chain predicted via the AI module a 63% probability of the Bitcoin price rallying to $100,000 during the second half of 2024.
However, data from CME shows a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for August.
Analysts also predict an 85% probability of a 25 basis points cut in September.
Spot on Chain noted a compelling probability of BTC surpassing the $150,000 threshold in the first half of 2025, with a 42% chance assigned to this scenario.
This likelihood increases to 70% when considering the entire year of 2025.
