Key Points
- Tokens worth over $555 million are set to be unlocked between Oct. 6 and Oct.13.
- The Altcoin Season Index is nearing the critical 75 mark that usually precedes significant altcoin rallies.
Data from Tokenomist reveals that tokens worth more than $555 million are due to be unlocked between Oct. 6 and Oct.13. This unlocking wave covers a wide range of projects, including both emerging altcoins and established layer-1 giants.
The Altcoin Season Index, which is currently at 71, is approaching the critical 75 mark. This threshold is often a precursor to explosive altcoin rallies.
Understanding Token Unlocks
Token unlocks refer to the planned release of previously locked tokens into the open market. These tokens are typically held by teams, early investors, or ecosystem grants. When large amounts of tokens are unlocked relative to the circulating supply, it can lead to short-term volatility or downward price pressure as recipients seek to capitalize on profits.
This week’s schedule includes some significant cliff unlocks. Leading the pack is ATH, which is releasing 1.26 billion tokens valued at $68.06 million, accounting for 10.32% of its total supply. Aptos [NC] is not far behind with $61.53 million in unlocks, representing 1.61% of supply. Other releases include BABY, BB, and HOME, each unlocking over 9% of their total token supplies.
Linear Unlocks Lead by Solana
In linear unlocks, where tokens are released gradually each day, Solana leads with $115.16 million in unlocks, representing 0.09% of circulating supply. The politically-associated meme token TRUMP will release $38.05 million (1.52%) of its supply, while other tokens like Worldcoin, Dogecoin, and Avalanche each contribute over $20 million in daily releases.
Historically, periods of large token unlocks coincide with increased selling pressure, especially when market liquidity is thin or investors are cautious.
Altcoin Season: Approaching Euphoria
While unlocks raise concerns about short-term dips, broader market indicators continue to flash bullish signals. The TOTAL3 chart, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, recently broke above key resistance at $1.16 trillion, testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
This breakout suggests strong underlying demand for altcoins and a potential acceleration toward $1.2 trillion and beyond. If momentum holds, Fibonacci extensions project upside targets at $1.31 trillion (1.618 level), $1.48 trillion (2.618), and $1.76 trillion (4.236). The RSI at 61 indicates that while altcoins are heating up, the market has not yet entered overbought territory.
With the Altcoin Season Index’s reading of 71, crypto is nearing a full-fledged alt season, a phase when capital rotates aggressively from Bitcoin and Ethereum into mid- and small-cap tokens.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin also hit a new all-time high at $125,000, just two months after the leading digital asset crossed $120K for the first time. Once the dominance declines, capital inflow could soon result in a massive surge in the prices of high-growth altcoins.
