Bitcoin Holds Strong Over $100,000: Weekend Forecast

Key Points

• Bitcoin has been stable near $101,500 following a tough week that saw its price dip below six figures for the first time since May.
• ETF data showed a turn after six straight days of redemptions, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recording about $240 million of net inflows on Thursday.

Bitcoin’s price has remained steady around $101,500 after a challenging week that momentarily pushed it below $100,000 for the first time since May.

In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $100,000 and $103,000 as derivatives leverage reset and spot flows improved.

ETF Data and Large Holders

After six consecutive days of redemptions, ETF data showed a reversal with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recording approximately $240 million of net inflows on Thursday.

Ethereum ETFs added around $12.5 million, and Solana ETFs about $29 million. Large holders accumulated an estimated 30,000 BTC this week, close to $3 billion, while exchange balances continued to lower. The market sentiment is shifting from panic to positioning.

Market Conditions

The macroeconomic indicators remain mixed. U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest October figure since 2003, indicating corporate caution.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is limiting visibility on data and policy. After the October rate cut, market odds are near 60% for another move in December, but communication remains uncertain.

Trading Trends

Trading trends suggest a rotation rather than a broad exit. Reports indicate funds trimming altcoins and adding to Bitcoin and Ethereum, a pattern that could increase BTC dominance if it continues.

Ethereum is trading near $3,340, BNB around $955, and Solana near $155. Approximately 71% of BTC supply remains in profit, suggesting that long-term holders are not capitulating despite short-term weakness.

Technical Levels

The price reclaimed the $100,000 psychological area after a midweek drop to $98,000. The 50-day EMA is near $100,000 and has acted as a pivot since September 2023.

Immediate support sits at $100,000 then $98,000. A clean break below $98,000 risks forced selling into the $95,000 to $96,000 zone where prior liquidation clusters sit. Resistance is stacked near $103,000 to $105,000.

Market Scenarios

If calm persists and spot leads, the market may continue basing above $100,000 with shallow pullbacks that are absorbed by whales and ETF buyers when trading resumes on Monday.

If headlines hit or derivatives drive price under $100,000, stops below $98,000 can accelerate a sweep of lower liquidity pockets before buyers step back in.

What to Watch

Keep an eye on spot ETF flow when U.S. markets reopen, exchange balances from older wallets, funding and open interest on major venues, and any guidance from Fed officials ahead of December.

A weekly close above the 50-week moving average would help the recovery case. A close below it would keep the focus on defense and range trading until policy visibility improves.