Crypto
Bitcoin Price Warning: Which Level Must Hold to Avoid $60K?
Bitcoin slid from $87K to around $82,200 this week. One analyst says a single support level decides whether the bullish case survives or price falls.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingBitcoin slid from $87K to around $82,200 this week. One analyst says a single support level decides whether the bullish case survives or price falls.
Bitcoin dropped from the $86,000 to $87,000 area to about $82,200 this week, touching $81,773 on the way down.
That leaves price sitting just under a level analyst Rekt Capital has singled out as the one bulls cannot lose. Spot ETF buyers pulled money out on the same day.
Rekt Capital posted on X that "~$82500 needs to hold continually as support for bullish bias and to avoid mean reversion into the $60k-$80k Range."
However, one bounce off $82,500 does not settle anything. Bitcoin has to keep closing above it, week after week, for the bullish case to stay intact. When price breaks out of a range and then fails to hold the breakout, it tends to drift back to where it spent the most time before. For BTC, that zone runs from $60,000 to $80,000.
Right now, Bitcoin sits roughly $300 below the level. A short dip under support is common during a retest and does not confirm a breakdown by itself.
Fund flows turned against the price on October 7. SoSoValue data shows spot BTC ETFs lost $487.07 million that day, the largest daily outflow of the month so far. It came one day after $118.86 million of inflows and two days after an $89.90 million outflow.
Cumulative net inflows fell from $57.82 billion to $57.33 billion. Total net assets dropped from $110.68 billion to $107.40 billion in a single session. For the week, net flows stand at minus $458.10 million. Two weeks ago the same funds took in $2.39 billion, so one red day does not undo that buying.
The weekly chart adds a second warning. Rekt Capital pointed out that the 50-week and 21-week EMAs are closing in on a crossover, which he expects over the next several weeks. He ties the cross to the early stage of a bull cycle, and he does not treat it as protection from a drop.
His reference point is 2023. That year, price fell below both EMAs after the crossover and formed its pullback bottom there. If the pattern repeats, a dip under the two averages is possible this time too.
The 1-hour chart looks weak as well. Bitcoin keeps printing lower highs and lower lows. RSI sits near 36, which is soft but not deeply oversold. MACD remains below the zero line, though its histogram has started to improve, a hint that selling pressure may be slowing.
The short-term look is simple. Support sits at $81,700 to $82,000. Resistance comes in at $83,000 to $83,500, then $84,000. If Bitcoin holds support and reclaims $83,500, a recovery toward $84,000 to $85,000 is on the table. A stronger rebound would need a move back above $85,000.
If a 1-hour candle closes decisively below $81,700, the structure weakens further. $80,000 becomes the first target, and the wider $78,000 to $80,000 area comes into play. That would put BTC inside the top of the range Rekt Capital warned about.
$60,000 is the bottom of that range and a long way below current price. Rekt Capital's posts name the range and give no specific downside target. For now, the chart stays bearish until BTC reclaims $83,500 to $84,000.
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