Crypto
Analyst Michael Van De Poppe’s LINK Price Rally Is Still Far Away
LINK remains below key resistance as weak ETF demand and heavy supply challenge Michael van de Poppe’s bullish outlook.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingLINK remains below key resistance as weak ETF demand and heavy supply challenge Michael van de Poppe’s bullish outlook.
Analyst Michael Van De Poppe says Chainlink's LINK is still building momentum and has yet to begin its major rally. He shared the view on X this week, arguing the current cycle will differ sharply from earlier ones.
Exchange flows, ETF inflows and on-chain supply data, however, suggest the path higher may take longer than bulls expect.
Van De Poppe highlighted that LINK is still literally just building up its momentum. He added that this cycle will be completely different from previous cycles. Established protocols, he argued, are now building products with real product-market fit.
His view rests on the idea that utility, not speculation, will drive the next advance. Chainlink's oracle infrastructure already underpins much of decentralized finance, which supports that argument.
However, the technicals point in a different direction. Exchange flows have been highly bearish, with selling dominating LINK across August. Net position change swung from roughly negative 17 million LINK in late July to above positive 2 million by September. Selling slowed in September, and the metric now hovers near zero.
That calm could prove temporary, since the chart shows sharp upward jumps in March and June. A similar spike would reintroduce heavy selling pressure.
The ETFs have been less than exceptional since the launch of LINK funds. Weekly flows have stayed largely under $10 million, except on two occasions. Those were the opening week near $48 million and a mid-August print around $13 million.
Total net assets stand at $236.45 million, tracking price more than reflecting fresh demand. Such weak flows are not promising for an altcoin rally.
Additionally, LINK sits under a key barrier at $14.12. That level marks an accumulation of 29.5 million LINK, worth over $396 million.
A breach would trigger a sharp uptick as that supply turns profitable. However, it could also unleash profit-taking from investors who have waited months for this level.
The cost basis heatmap also shows dense clusters near $15.60, aligning with the $15.55 resistance on the price chart. Sellers hoping to exit at breakeven may therefore appear at several levels on the way up. The heatmap also reveals how LINK recovered from a low near $7 in late June.
Holders who bought during the rebound sit comfortably in profit and may sell into strength. Fresh buyers must therefore absorb supply from several different cost levels.
The LINK price chart shows the altcoin trapped beneath an upward-moving barrier. It has failed to breach this trendline three times over the past two months.
The rejections came in late August, early September, and late September.
Trading at $13.36, LINK needs to bounce off the $13.00 support. It must then push through $15.55 to reach $17.00, where the barrier resides. Once it is breached, LINK can continue its uptick.
Rising moving averages at $11.19 and $10.72 offer a deeper cushion. Losing $13.00 would expose $12.23 and then $11.64. Until then, the rally Van De Poppe expects looks further away than the headlines suggest.
The daily candle printed a long lower wick on October 1, showing buyers defending dips. That reaction reinforces $13.00 as the level bulls must defend.
Only a close above the barrier would confirm momentum has arrived.
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