NEAR crypto rose to $4.69 as the crypto market cap hit $2.93 trillion, but analyst Michael van de Poppe says the token is still nine times below its peak against Bitcoin.
The crypto market is having its best stretch of the year, and NEAR has been one of its sharpest movers. Yet one analyst's chart argues the rally has barely started. The total crypto market capitalization climbed to about $2.93 trillion on 23 September 2026, a gain of 1.12% in 24 hours, with 91% of the top 200 coins in the green, according to CoinCodex data.
Bitcoin traded near $86,487, up 1.28% on the day, holding close to its highest level since January. The recovery has run through a week that included a failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2023.
NEAR has outpaced almost all of it. The token traded at about $4.69, up 6.28% in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data, extending a rally of more than 80% over the past week.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe posted a long-term chart of NEAR measured against Bitcoin rather than the dollar, and his read cuts against the excitement.
"Essentially, the recent rally is peanuts compared to a real bull market," he wrote. "The all-time high is still 9x away."
The distinction matters. Pricing a token in Bitcoin strips out the effect of the wider market moving together and shows whether an asset is genuinely outperforming. By that measure, NEAR sits far further from its peak than the dollar chart suggests, because Bitcoin itself has climbed a long way since NEAR set its record.
In dollar terms, NEAR is about 77% below its all-time high of $20.44, set in January 2022. Against Bitcoin, van de Poppe puts the gap at roughly nine times.
That is a bullish framing in the sense that it leaves room to run. It is also a reminder of how far the token fell.
The rally has a specific trigger. On 17 September, NEAR made perpetual futures confidential by default on its trading interface, using Hyperliquid for the underlying markets. The product hides the link between a trader's public account and the position they hold, while the trades themselves stay visible on the order book.
That positioned NEAR alongside Zcash in the privacy trade that has run through September, and the market responded quickly.
Derivatives data suggests the move has not yet turned frothy. Open interest rose 119% in dollar terms in the week to 20 September but only 21% measured in NEAR tokens, according to Santiment, meaning most of the dollar increase came from existing positions gaining value rather than new leverage arriving.
The levels are straightforward after a move this fast. The $4 area is the first support, the level NEAR cleared on the way up. Holding above it keeps the breakout intact. Losing it would suggest the launch-driven rally is unwinding, and would put the pre-announcement range back in play.
On the upside, $5 is the nearest psychological test. Beyond that, there is little recent trading history to act as resistance until well above current levels, which is the practical version of van de Poppe's zoomed-out perspective.
Two things decide whether the move holds. The first is whether trading activity on the confidential perps product continues once the launch attention fades. The second is Bitcoin. NEAR has rallied inside a market-wide recovery, and a sharp reversal in BTC would take the altcoin trade with it.
Santiment's read on the token last week was that the data does not signal exhaustion, but that the move is no longer early. Van de Poppe's chart makes the opposite case on a longer timeframe. Both can be true: stretched in the short term, still deep in a drawdown against Bitcoin.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
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