Bitcoin price fell to $74,225 on 9 November, about 6% below the $79,300 average cost of buyers from the past three months, according to a CryptoQuant analyst. Why that level matters and what to watch.
Bitcoin price is now trading below what most of its recent buyers paid. BTC traded at $74,225 at 09:30 UTC on 9 November 2026, according to recent data from CoinGecko. The price was down 2.1% in 24 hours, 4.6% over seven days, and 10% over 30 days, with a market cap of $1.49 trillion. CoinGecko data tied the latest leg down to about $1 billion in liquidations over the weekend.
According to the latest CryptoQuant QuickTake, the average price paid by people who bought Bitcoin in the past one to three months is roughly $79,300. Bitcoin closed at $74,800 on 8 November, 5.7% below it, and has slipped further since.
So the question for the week is not whether Bitcoin bounces back to the higher levels. It is whether it can get back above $79,300 before the people who bought there decide to get out at breakeven.
Woominkyu's top chart colours Bitcoin's price line by who is winning. "The price line is green when buyers are stronger and red when sellers are stronger," the post explains.
"It is based on who buys or sells at market price, and whose leveraged bets get wiped out."
The colours have tracked the big moves of the year. "January's crash: red. August's rally: green. Since late October, the line has turned red again," the analyst wrote. Late October is when the Binance hack hit, and the line has not turned back since.
That squares with the rest of the tape. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $842 million across 5 and 6 November, according to SoSoValue, and a strong October jobs report on Friday pushed out any hope of a December Fed cut. Weekend liquidations then took Bitcoin through $75,000, a level Polymarket traders had priced at 87.5% on Friday and now show as hit.
The dashed line shows the average cost basis of coins that last moved one to three months ago. In plain terms, the entry price of buyers from August, September, and October. It stands at about $79,300.
"Bitcoin closed at $74.8K on Nov 8, about 5.7% below that level. Most recent buyers are now at a loss," Woominkyu wrote.
At Monday's price, the gap is closer to 6.4%.
Why that matters is behavioural rather than technical. "When recent buyers are underwater, some may sell when price comes back to their cost, just to break even. That can make the $79K area harder to break," the post said. Support becomes resistance, not because of a chart pattern but because of who is waiting there.
Notably, this is the same metric another analyst flagged at $77,140 on 1 November. It has risen about $2,000 in a week while price fell $4,000, which means late October's buyers paid more than the average, and the line is now further out of reach than it was when Bitcoin last tested it.
History from this year is not encouraging on timing. "In 2026, price stayed below this line for months at a time (Feb–Apr, Jun–Aug) before reclaiming it," the analyst noted. Both of those stretches ended with a rally, but neither ended quickly.
Woominkyu set out two conditions: "The top chart turning green again (buyers back in control)" and "Price closing back above ~$79K (recent buyers back in profit)." The post added: "Both together would be a much better sign than either one alone."
Prediction markets lean the other way for now. Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 72.5% chance of touching $72,500 in November and 51.5% for $70,000, according to odds displayed by CoinGecko on 9 November. The odds of a return to $80,000 have fallen to 46.5%, from 82.5% a week ago.
In the bullish scenario, Tuesday's October CPI print comes in soft, the ETF outflows stop, and Bitcoin reclaims $77,500 and then $79,300 on volume, with the buyer-seller indicator flipping green at the same time. That would put the cost-basis line back under price and turn August's playbook into November's.
That said, in a bearish scenario, a hot CPI keeps a December hike on the table, $72,500 goes the way $75,000 did, and $70,000 becomes the test, with recent buyers deeper underwater and more likely to sell any bounce toward $79,000. Either way, the $79,300 line is now the scoreboard, and the chart will say which side is winning before the price does.
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