Oil’s next move could shape Bitcoin’s path as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten Hormuz shipping and revive a key geopolitical market catalyst.
Governments and people across the world have their eyes set on the Strait of Hormuz and the oil price at the moment. This is because today marks the day that the 60-day-long US-Iran Ceasefire ends.
This has already created an atmosphere of fear at the Strait with cargo ships’ passage coming to a complete halt over the last 24 hours.
As a result, the question of where Oil, Stock Markets, and Crypto are heading is reappearing.
The US-Iran Ceasfire ends today, and the effect of the same is already visible in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic declined sharply over the weekend, with only 5 ships passing through on Saturday, while the passage of cargo ships reached zero on Sunday.
The chances of the ceasefire extending are also sitting at a low, considering Donald Trump sparked fresh conflict on Saturday. The President of the United States said that he will soon declare the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.
To this, the Iranian Regime’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs of Iran, Kazem Gharibabadi, replied,
“Once and for all, accept the reality: up to this point, you have suffered strategic and heavy defeats; the Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian; this strait will only be closed and opened under Iran's command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and cease your fanciful delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade.”
As of now, no accord has been initiated by either of the countries, which points to a possible revival of tension in the Strait.
Over the last couple of days, Oil has been maintaining $80 as a critical support, but with the possibility of delays and traffic halting at the Strait, the price could surge soon, eyeing $100, which it held at the height of the conflict.
In the six months since the US-Iran war first began, there have been various instances of ceasefire and renewed strikes. Following the February 28’s first strike, Brent climbed from $75 to above $100, marking a +33%+ over a week.
Brent fell 15.9% to $92.30 per barrel when the first ceasefire was announced in early April. Then on July 7, when Iran attacked 3 commercial vessels, and Trump declared the MOU over, Oil climbed 34% in 2 weeks. Finally, prices dipped slightly after strikes paused around the end of July.
Now, if the strikes begin again, oil prices could see a jump again, and with fresh agitation, it could reach $100.
Bitcoin’s price might see a jump as well, considering that historically, every instance of revived conflict has led to a surge in BTC price. Early April, end of June, and early August - all these phases contributed to a shift in BTC price.
Sitting at $63,308 at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price has maintained $58,00 to $62,500 as a critical support zone since earlier this year. This support will remain as BTC navigates the impact of the conflict.
The S&P 500's push to record highs, closing above 7,800 for the first time, has been driven mainly by cooling inflation and AI earnings. However, easing Iran-conflict risk has been a real tailwind too: a $3.7 trillion four-day rally in early August was powered partly by "a break in oil prices".
Every flare-up in the conflict - the April 18 ceasefire collapse, the July 7-8 MOU breakdown, the July 23 Houthi escalation - has coincided with equity wobbles. Every calming moment (the April 8 and June 17 ceasefires, the July 26-27 pause) has lined up with stocks resuming their climb as oil fell.
Stock markets at an ATH have also resulted in Consumer Confidence recently hitting an all-time low. Glassnode data shows that the weak sentiment is pushing money out of cash and into equities, AI, and commodities.
However, Bitcoin has been left out in this capital shift, which could see a revival if the conflict flares up again. BTC could note stronger inflows as the oil price rises.
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