Traders Bet Bitcoin Price Hits $50,000 Before $100,000

Quick Take:

• Traders on prediction market Kalshi gave Bitcoin price a 69% chance of falling to $50,000 before reaching $100,000.
• Only 31% of traders believe Bitcoin will recover directly to six figures without another major drop.
• Bitcoin has rebounded above $64,000 after recent selling pressure, but analysts remain divided on its next move.

Bitcoin recently bounced back above $64,000, but traders are still betting on a market dip before the next major rally. On regulated prediction platform Kalshi, the contract asking whether Bitcoin will hit $50,000 before $100,000 currently shows a 69% probability in favor of the lower target.

While many traders expect one last dip, others believe the recent correction may already be approaching its final stage.

Why Are Traders Betting on $50K Before $100K?

The bearish odds on Kalshi come after one of Bitcoin's sharpest corrections of the current cycle. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high near $126,000 and has spent much of the past few weeks struggling to hold support above $60,000.

The decline has been driven by a combination of weaker institutional demand, large ETF outflows, and fading expectations that central banks will aggressively cut interest rates this year.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen an outflow of $5.5 billion in the last month, removing one of the strongest sources of buying pressure that fueled Bitcoin's earlier rally.

Analysts See $60K and $55K as Key Bitcoin Price Support

Even among long-term crypto bulls, few are expecting a straight move back to $100,000. Several market analysts continue to highlight the $60,000 and $55,000 levels as critical support zones.

Meanwhile, if those areas fail to hold, Bitcoin could face another wave of selling pressure.

Popular crypto analyst Kaleo recently suggested that one more cycle dip remains possible before the market enters its next major expansion phase.

Is Bitcoin Price Approaching a Bottom?

Not everyone is convinced the market has much further to fall. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover pointed to a historical on-chain indicator that has previously appeared near major Bitcoin bottoms.

According to the analyst, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has recently crossed below the percentage of supply in loss. Historically, similar crosses occurred during major market lows in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022.

"The most reliable Bitcoin bottom signal just fired again."

The analyst noted that previous cycles typically required another one to three months after the signal appeared before the final bottom was fully established.

If history repeats, Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of the current correction rather than the beginning of a deeper bear market.

Bulls Still See a Path to Six Figures

Despite the growing bearish sentiment, several market participants remain highly optimistic. Crypto trader KillaXBT continues to forecast a move toward $160,000, arguing that the current downturn represents a temporary setback within a broader long-term uptrend.

Other analysts point to increasing institutional adoption, growing corporate Bitcoin holdings, and the long-term impact of spot ETFs as reasons the market could eventually recover.

Standard Chartered recently maintained its year-end Bitcoin target of $100,000, with analyst Geoffrey Kendrick arguing that Bitcoin's drop to roughly $59,000 may have already marked the cycle bottom.

Bitcoin Recovers Above $64,000

Interestingly, Bitcoin has started showing signs of stabilization after several difficult weeks. Following a recent bounce of roughly 3%, Bitcoin is now trading near $64,271.

The move has helped improve short-term sentiment and sparked speculation that buyers may be returning to the market.