XRP price fell to $1.04, down 24% in 30 days, as Binance long liquidations reached the 95th percentile and open interest dropped, according to CryptoQuant. Active accounts rose 56%. What the split means for the $1.00 level.
XRP is at the bottom of its yearly range, and the people getting hurt are the ones who borrowed to bet on it. XRP traded at $1.04 at 21:10 UTC on 12 November 2026, according to recent data from CoinGecko, down 2.6% in 24 hours, 16.7% over seven days and 24.5% over 30 days. Its market cap stood at $65.9 billion on $1.55 billion of daily volume, with $2.13 billion in perpetual futures open interest.
That 30-day drop is the worst among the top ten. Bitcoin is down 10% over the same stretch, Ether 11%. On Monday, the question was where the XRP selling was coming from, and Binance deposits gave one answer. A CryptoQuant QuickTake published on 12 November gives a sharper one: it is leveraged longs being forced out, and the chain underneath them is busier than it has been all year.
XRP closed at $1.05 on 11 November, "down 19.4% over 7 days and 21.7% over 30 days." That close "sits in the 16th percentile of its past-year range," meaning XRP has traded lower on only about one day in six over the past 12 months.
It has slipped further since. Wednesday's $1.04 print leaves XRP within 4% of the $1.00 level it has not closed below since early 2025. Polymarket traders give an 80.5% chance that it touches $1.00 in November, according to odds displayed by CoinGecko, up from 57.5% on Monday. The odds of a return to $1.20 have fallen to 22.5%.
The derivatives data is where the QuickTake earns its headline. Binance long liquidations "averaged $5.50M over the last 7 days, up 104.5% over 30 days," CryptoOnchain wrote, and the 11 November figure of $1.54 million "is in the 95th percentile." In plain terms, longs on Binance have been getting closed out at twice October's pace, and Tuesday was one of the heaviest days of the year.
Open interest went the other way. Binance XRP open interest fell to $368.31 million, "9.2% below its level 30 days ago and in the 21st percentile." Liquidations up, open interest down and price down is the signature of positions being unwound rather than new shorts piling in. The leverage ratio confirms it: at 0.14, down 9.3% in a month, "the decline is not driven by rising leverage," the post says.
Two more readings point the same way. Funding sat at 0.0092, in the 90th percentile, and has held between 0.0058 and 0.0101 all week, which means longs are still paying to stay in and still outnumber shorts. The seven-day taker buy/sell ratio of 0.95 shows market sells slightly ahead of market buys, consistent with the negative CVD reading on Monday.
Exchange flows add a wrinkle. Binance netflow averaged minus $6.98 million a day over seven days, and on 11 November $715,600 came in against $17.50 million out. Yet Binance's XRP reserve rose 6.7% on the week to 2.58 billion. Coins are leaving in dollar terms while the token count on the exchange grows, which is what happens when price falls faster than withdrawals.
Here is the part that does not fit a simple bear story. Active XRP Ledger accounts reached 42,300, "up 56.4% over 30 days," which the analyst scores at a Z of +4.06, the 98th percentile. Transactions hit 3.35 million, the 93rd percentile, and fees sit in the 98th. Token velocity, though, fell 23.9% in a week, so "higher account activity has not translated into faster token movement."
More accounts doing more transactions with less token turnover is not what you see when holders are rushing for exits. It looks more like usage, or at least activity, growing independently of the trade. The QuickTake offers one unverified reading: "the sell-off may reflect forced closing of long positions, while on-chain activity is rising for reasons unrelated to leverage."
The macro backdrop has not helped. The post's latest macro snapshot, from 5 November, had the dollar index at 101.56 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95%. Since then a hot CPI print has pushed a December Fed hike to near certainty, and Bitcoin has broken below the cost basis of its recent buyers. XRP, the highest-beta large cap this month, has felt all of it.
"For now, the clearest reading is that leveraged XRP longs on Binance are being unwound while on-chain activity keeps rising," the QuickTake concludes. The unwind has a natural end: when open interest stops falling and funding comes off its 90th-percentile perch, the forced sellers are out.
In the bullish scenario, that happens above $1.00. Open interest flattens, long liquidations drop back toward their 30-day average, and XRP reclaims $1.14 and then the $1.21 close from 5 November, with the rising account count giving buyers a fundamental reason to step in.
That said, in a bearish scenario, funding stays elevated, another liquidation day in the 90th percentile arrives, and $1.00 breaks for the first time in 20 months. Polymarket already prices that at four in five. Below $1.00, the next reference is the $0.80 level, which traders price at 12%. The two numbers to watch are Binance open interest, which is updated daily on CryptoQuant, and whether Thursday's liquidation reading falls out of the 90s. The first day it does is the first day the selling is no longer forced.
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