Tether's market cap fell $6.6 billion in 60 days, more than after FTX, according to CryptoQuant, as Bitcoin price dropped below $74,000 on a hot CPI print. Why liquidity is the problem, and the level to watch.
The crypto market is losing the one thing it needs most right now: cash on the sidelines. Bitcoin price traded near $73,400 at 17:00 UTC on 10 November 2026. BTC was down about 1.7% in 24 hours, roughly 10% over 30 days, after US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against the 0.3% economists expected. Ether fell harder, to about $2,045. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 20 basis points, and CME FedWatch put a quarter-point December hike at close to certain.
The aforementioned is just the macro half of the story. The on-chain half arrived the same morning. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Tether's market cap has fallen $6.6 billion in 60 days, a faster drain than the redemption wave that followed FTX's collapse in December 2022. Stablecoin supply is the dry powder of this market. It is being spent, not refilled.
Six days ago, a CryptoQuant analyst argued stablecoin supply was turning back up. The weekly report says the 60-day trend still points the other way, and Bitcoin is now trading at the level where the firm says the correction either ends or gets serious.
The 60-day figure is the one that stands out.
"Tether's market capitalization has fallen by $6.6 billion over 60 days, the largest contraction since our series begins in mid-2022 and deeper than the post-FTX redemptions of December 2022."
Why it matters is mechanical. Stablecoins are how new money sits inside crypto before it buys anything. "Stablecoin supply is the dry powder of the crypto market; when it shrinks, new demand for bitcoin has to come from somewhere else," the report says. The Binance hack on 29 October, and the $2.8 billion in freezes that followed, accelerated a drain that had already begun in September.
Total stablecoin market cap still sits near $297 billion, according to CoinGecko, so this is a contraction from a record, not a collapse. But direction matters more than level for price, and the direction since mid-September has been out.
CryptoQuant's apparent demand metric, which nets new Bitcoin issuance against changes in long-dormant supply, has contracted by 284,000 BTC over 30 days. That is the sharpest fall since 28 March 2025. The report notes that contractions of this size "have marked local bottoms before, in March 2025 and again in June–July 2026."
The missing piece is the US buyer. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures whether Bitcoin trades higher on Coinbase than on Binance, has been negative on every one of the last 30 days. "US demand in particular remains soft," the report says, "so the spot bid that led earlier recoveries has not yet appeared." That squares with the $842 million that left US spot Bitcoin ETFs across 5 and 6 November.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, a composite of its cycle indicators, now reads 20, which it labels extra bearish. It stood at 90 on 13 October. The last comparable fall was April 2025, after the tariff selloff, when the score also hit 20 and then recovered to 80 within two months as the market bottomed. The firm attributes the current reading to "profit taking, Fed hawkishness, the Binance hack and the political shock of the mid-terms."
Recent buyers are underwater and getting more so. CryptoQuant's trader margin, the gap between price and the cost basis of coins bought one to three months ago, has gone from +33% on 22 September to minus 6%. "During bull-market corrections this margin has bottomed near −12%; at the current price traders are halfway there," the report says. A move to minus 12% would be consistent with a local bottom. A break through it would put this drawdown alongside the deeper ones of 2024, 2025 and early 2026.
Two moving averages frame the decision. Bitcoin is already below its 365-day average at $76,400, which CryptoQuant treats as a bearish signal that needs to be reclaimed. The 200-day average sits at $73,200, and at Tuesday's price Bitcoin is within $300 of it. "Until then, the 200-day moving average at $73.2K is the level that separates a shallow correction from a deeper one," the report says.
The firm's own verdict is deliberately split: the indicators look like April 2025, which was a bottom, and also like the opening of a deeper correction. Its tilt is cautious. Falling stablecoin liquidity and no recovery in spot buying, it concludes, mean Bitcoin "remains at risk of a deeper correction."
Three numbers decide the next two weeks. The 200-day average at $73,200: a daily close below it, on CryptoQuant's framework, moves the base case from a local bottom to a deeper correction.
The USDT 60-day change: the first week it turns up is the first sign the dry powder is being refilled. And the Coinbase Premium: 30 negative days is a long run, and one positive print would mean the US bid is back.
In the bullish scenario, $73,200 holds, Tether's supply stabilises as the Binance-related freezes wash through, and the trader margin bottoms near minus 12% around $70,000 before buyers return, repeating April 2025.
That said, in a bearish scenario, a close below $73,200, with USDT still shrinking, takes Bitcoin toward the $70,000 level Polymarket traders priced at 51.5% on Monday, and the comparison shifts from April 2025 to the drawdowns that took months to repair. With a December hike now priced in, the market will not get help from the Fed to choose between them.
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