Crypto
World’s Biggest Bitcoin Bear Turns Bullish: BTC Price Bottom Near?
Bitcoin’s biggest bear just turned bullish, raising fresh questions about whether BTC has finally reached the bottom.
12h ago 4,280
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingBitcoin’s biggest bear just turned bullish, raising fresh questions about whether BTC has finally reached the bottom.
Looking for signals of a market shift is difficult when most of the data lies on-chain, hidden behind noise, which evokes the question - how else can this be ascertained?
The answer, interestingly, lies in how the whales are acting. One such whale, the biggest bear on-chain, just changed their stance, and that might be the first step of confirming a reversal.
Bitcoin address 0x66f889094739dbb7d20aa60f645acd88feba75a9, also known as 0x66f8, is one of the, if not the biggest, bears in the world. This address closed their $136 million BTC short and has since opened a $12.74 million BTC long.
A long is a contract where the bet lies in favor of a price rise. The 400 BTC long is a huge flip, and more than that, it is a sign of changing sentiments. If the world’s biggest bear believes that BTC is close to turning its direction and beginning a climb soon, the bottom is likely in.
This conviction is likely coming from the fact that BTC is actually showing similar signs. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a 365-395-day bear cycle, and if the lower limit of that range is considered for BTC, the recovery should likely start from October 1 this year.
While Bitcoin price’s drawdown this bear cycle hasn’t been the same as those observed in the past, averaging around 77%, it still could be for BTC.
The shift in capital inflows, specifically ETFs, as well as the higher price per BTC, could be contributing factors to a relatively muted drawdown.
Bitcoin is currently halfway through its historically worst month on record. August at a median has clocked in 7.15% losses across the last 15 years. This makes the crypto king vulnerable to further losses.
While month to date, BTC has seen a virtually neutral month, rising by just 0.49%, the latter half of the month might see a shift in winds.
Interestingly, Q3 as a whole has closed on a positive note, which makes September the first saving grace for BTC. Depending on how good the next month is, the 365-day cycle might have a chance of becoming true.
Long-term holder (LTH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) at the moment is still sitting under 1.0. This is a bad and good sign at the same time. The former because LTHs are clearly losing their patience, and the massive selling of old coins is a bearish signal.
But at the same time, it’s a positive sign because it shows that with LTHs selling at a loss, the market truly is at a bottom.
These holders tend to hold their positions until the last moment, and with consistent losses, the majority of the market is experiencing losses. HODLing is crucial at this stage, which is where LTHs are likely headed, until the market recovers.
Bitcoin’s price is still in the expected bottom range of $62,250 to $58,000. The bottom line sits at $52,268, below which the losses will rise exponentially. Until then, BTC will have a shot at bouncing back. But if this range is maintained, a recovery could be coming soon.
During the March 2024 to October 2024 consolidation phase, this range was tested multiple times. BTC broke below it a few times, too, but only managed to reach $52,269 twice.
Thus, Bitcoin’s price has room to decline in the rest of August to confirm the bottom and complete its drawdown cycle before it prepares for a bounce back.
No comments yet
Be the first to share your take when accounts launch.
