Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer believes Bitcoin could find its bear-market bottom between $42K and $44K in late 2026, pointing to Strategy's mNAV and growing miner stress as key indicators.
Bitcoin has been struggling to regain momentum, and now one of China's best-known Bitcoin miners has claimed that the market may still have a long way to go before finding its ultimate bottom.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of mining pool BTC.top, recently shared a rather cautious outlook for Bitcoin, predicting that the current bear market could eventually bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 sometime in the fourth quarter of 2026.
While many investors continue debating whether Bitcoin has already seen the worst, Jiang notes that historical cycle data show otherwise.
The center of Jiang's analysis revolves around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and its market-to-net-asset-value ratio, better known as mNAV.
Jiang pointed out that Strategy's mNAV had dropped to around 0.72, very close to the 0.70 level seen in May 2022 during the previous bull-to-bear market transition.
The mNAV compares the Strategy's stock price to the value of the Bitcoin held on its balance sheet. When the ratio falls sharply, it often signals weakening investor sentiment toward Bitcoin-related equities.
However, Jiang says investors should not assume that an mNAV bottom immediately means Bitcoin has bottomed as well.
During the last cycle, Strategy's mNAV hit its low in May 2022 when Bitcoin was trading near $31,000. Bitcoin itself didn't reach its final bear market bottom until November 2022, when it fell to roughly $15,500, about six months later.
Based on that pattern, Jiang thinks the current cycle could follow a similar path.
Using a combination of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle and a volatility reduction model, Jiang projects that Bitcoin could reach its final bear-market low between October and December 2026, with his preferred target sitting near $44,000.
He noted that his model has historically been better at predicting timing than exact price levels.
For now, Jiang says he has reduced spot exposure and is maintaining short positions in the market. He plans to switch back to spot buying and long positions once the expected bottoming zone is confirmed.
Jiang's bearish outlook also comes as Bitcoin miners face growing financial pressure.
According to data from The Block, average daily miner revenue has dropped to around $30 million, down substantially from more than $50 million seen last summer.
Transaction fees have almost disappeared as a revenue source, contributing less than $250,000 per day.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been trading around $62,500, well below JPMorgan's estimated production cost of roughly $78,000. Historically, production costs have often acted as a soft price floor, making this prolonged gap noteworthy.
An estimated 20% of miners are now unprofitable, per a March 2026 CoinShares report, forcing many operators to shut machines on and off depending on market conditions. Public mining companies have also sold more than 32,000 BTC during the first quarter alone to cover expenses.
Jiang's forecast remains only one possible scenario.
Bitcoin's next move will still depend on several factors, including ETF inflows, interest rates, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and overall investor sentiment.
Still, traders will be more cautious about whether Strategy's mNAV continues to lead Bitcoin price action as Jiang expects. If history repeats itself, the market may still have several months left before a final bottom is reached.
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