Bitcoin spot ETFs lost $412 million on 6 November and Ether ETFs $93 million, the second straight day of outflows, as BTC fell from $80,000 to $76,000 after a strong US jobs report. What drove it and the levels to watch.
The buyers who carried Bitcoin through October stepped back this week. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $412 million in net outflows on 6 November, according to data from SoSoValue, a day after $430 million left the same funds. Together, that is $842 million out in two sessions, the heaviest back-to-back outflow since the Binance hack. Bitcoin price traded at $75,877 at 14:30 UTC on 7 November, according to recent data from CoinGecko, down 0.4% in 24 hours and 2.1% on the week.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin closed above $80,000 for the first time since the hack. By Friday morning it had given back the whole move and more. The reason sits in Friday's US jobs report, and the ETF tape shows how fast institutional money reacted.
Thursday's outflow was almost entirely one fund. BlackRock's IBIT shed $403 million, according to SoSoValue, against total net outflows of $411.92 million across the 12 products. Bitwise's BITB lost $20.55 million, ARK 21Shares' ARKB $20.09 million and Grayscale's GBTC $11.11 million. Fidelity's FBTC was the only fund to take money in, at $42.82 million.
Wednesday's session had been the mirror image. FBTC led the outflows on 5 November with about $200 million, as per the same data, inside a total of $430 million. So in 48 hours the two largest Bitcoin ETFs each had a $200 million-plus day on the wrong side, which is not what a flow table looks like when one fund is simply rebalancing.
The totals still favour the long-term holder. Bitcoin ETFs hold $95.90 billion in net assets, about 6.28% of Bitcoin's market cap, with cumulative net inflows of $55.70 billion. IBIT alone holds $60.29 billion and traded $1.83 billion of the day's $2.33 billion ETF volume. Two bad days do not dent that. What they do is remove the daily bid that absorbed October's selling.
Ether's funds saw the same pattern at smaller scale. Ethereum spot ETFs lost $93.19 million on 6 November, after $99.97 million on 5 November. BlackRock's ETHA drove both days, with about $90.8 million of Thursday's outflow and $75.20 million of Wednesday's. The one inflow was BlackRock's newer staked ETH product, ETHB, at $1.15 million, which suggests at least some of the ETHA money is moving across to the yield-bearing version rather than leaving.
Notably, the flows turned on Wednesday evening, before the jobs data, as Bitcoin stalled at $80,000 and the Trump Media wallet moved 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com. Thursday's number then landed on top of the data.
Bitcoin closed at $80,443 on 4 November, according to CoinGecko's daily data, its best close since 28 October. It closed at $76,006 on 5 November, a 5.5% drop, and $75,775 on 6 November. The $77,140 Trader Realized Price that held through the hack week, the average cost of coins bought in the past one to three months, gave way on the first real test.
The trigger was macro. US payrolls rose 165,000 in October against the 65,000 economists polled by Reuters expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. A labour market that strong removes any case for a Fed cut in December and keeps a hike on the table, a week after the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00%. Treasury yields rose on the report, tech stocks sold off and Bitcoin went with them.
Ether traded at $2,243.75 at 14:30 UTC on 7 November, down 0.6% in 24 hours and 11.3% over 30 days, according to CoinGecko, with a market cap of $274 billion. It has held up better than Bitcoin this week, flat over seven days, mostly because it had already fallen further in October.
Prediction markets have repriced. Polymarket traders now give Bitcoin a 58.5% chance of touching $80,000 again in November, down from 82.5% on 5 November, according to odds displayed by CoinGecko. They put 87.5% on $75,000, which is $900 away, and 41.5% on $70,000. For Ether, the odds are 84.5% for $2,200 and 39.5% for $2,000.
Tuesday's October CPI print is the next thing that can move the ETF tape. A soft number would ease the rate-hike worry that the jobs report created and give IBIT's sellers a reason to pause. A hot one would do the opposite in a market that has just lost its cost-basis support.
In the bullish scenario, Friday's ETF flow comes in flat or positive, Bitcoin holds the $75,000 to $76,000 area through the weekend, and a cooler CPI opens a retest of $77,140 from below, which then becomes resistance rather than support. That said, in a bearish scenario, a third day of nine-figure outflows confirms the buyers have gone quiet, $75,000 breaks, and the $72,500 level that Polymarket prices at 58.5% comes into play, with Ether likely testing $2,100 alongside it. The ETF flow at 20:00 UTC tonight will say which one is in motion.
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