Bitcoin price is showing signs of a bottom as long-term holder supply reaches 12.17 million BTC. However, a key capitulation signal remains absent.
Bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, has spent the past several weeks trying to stabilize above the $60,000 level after one of the deepest corrections of the current cycle. While some on-chain indicators suggest the market may be approaching a bottom.
But CryptoQuant analyst Alex Adler Jr, long-term holders are buying more Bitcoin, but the panic-selling signal seen at past market bottoms is still missing.
According to Alex Adler, one of the strongest bullish signals currently comes from Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Supply. This metric tracks coins that have matured into the hands of long-term investors rather than short-term traders.
Historically, major market bottoms have formed when a large amount of Bitcoin supply moved into stronger hands.
The latest chart shows LTH Realized Supply reaching 12.17 million BTC. Earlier this month, the figure climbed to a cycle high of 12.42 million before pulling back slightly.
Over the past year, long-term holder supply has more than doubled as investors continued holding through market volatility. This suggests many investors are choosing accumulation over selling despite Bitcoin remaining roughly 56% below its all-time high near $146,700.
Previous cycles showed similar behavior before major recoveries began.
During the 2015 bear market bottom, LTH supply reached approximately 15 million BTC. The 2018-2019 bottom formed near 16 million BTC, while the 2022-2023 cycle low occurred when the metric approached 19.7 million BTC.
Compared with those historical levels, today's 12.17 million BTC suggests supply maturation is happening, but the process may not be fully complete.
While long-term holder data looks encouraging, another chart tells a very different story. Bitcoin's Sales Pressure indicator has remained silent for 1,256 consecutive days.
According to CryptoQuant's analysis, this is now the longest period without a Sales Pressure signal in Bitcoin's history.
The metric only activates when two conditions appear simultaneously. First, the market's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) must turn negative, meaning investors as a whole are sitting on losses. Second, realized selling activity must increase significantly.
Historically, this combination marked the final panic-selling phase before major recoveries.
The chart shows that previous cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022 all experienced strong Sales Pressure spikes. Meanwhile, chart readings ranged from roughly 15% to as high as 32%.
The strongest capitulation event occurred in late 2018 when Sales Pressure reached around 32% during Bitcoin's bear market low. Today, that same indicator sits at 0%.
It's not just Alex Adler Jr who remains cautious. Crypto trader DR Profit warns that Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag, a pattern that often points to another leg lower.
He sees a drop toward the range of $54K to $56K first, followed by a period of sideways trading. On the more bearish side he sees a potential final move down into the range of $40K to $50K where a market bottom could form.
Even Popular analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that Bitcoin's MVRV Pricing Bands, which place a major historical accumulation zone between approximately $53,900 and $43,130.
According to Martinez, previous cycle bottoms often formed when Bitcoin entered those lower valuation ranges.
As of now, bitcoin is trading around $64,663 reflecting a slight drop seen in the last 24 hours.
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