Markets
Bitcoin Price Prediction: 50% Crash Amid DATs and Quantum Threat
Charles Edwards says Bitcoin price 50% decline followed two major risks he flagged earlier: DATs and quantum threats.
16d ago 4,280
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingCharles Edwards says Bitcoin price 50% decline followed two major risks he flagged earlier: DATs and quantum threats.
Bitcoin price has already slid roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, saw the drop coming.
According to him, the painful unwinding of leveraged corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the creeping threat from quantum computing are the main threats.
Edwards posted the update one day after the recent market action, referencing his earlier warning.
On October 1, 2025, with Bitcoin price near $118,000 and MicroStrategy (MSTR) at $340, he highlighted what he called the “double threat.”
Five days later, the cycle high was in. Today, Bitcoin price sits about 50% lower, while MSTR has dropped 73%.
Edwards focuses much of his criticism on digital asset treasury companies.
These DATs, led by MicroStrategy, have used debt and repeated equity raises to buy large amounts of Bitcoin. The strategy amplified gains on the way up.
On the way down, it creates forced selling pressure when leverage needs to unwind. He has described this dynamic as a “treasury bubble.”
In his June 2026 post, Edwards noted that neither the DAT deleveraging risks nor the quantum concerns have been “adequately addressed.”
The result, in his view, is sustained downward pressure on Bitcoin price.
Responding to a question about MicroStrategy’s resilience compared to past Grayscale GBTC discounts, Edwards replied that MSTR
“Wasn’t a ponzi with guaranteed 11.5% yield on an asset with no yield or cashflows.”
He added that while MSTR may survive the current bear market, “it won’t last long.” This isn’t abstract theory for Edwards.
As founder of Capriole, he runs a fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets.
His analysis carries the weight of someone who has watched these corporate balance-sheet experiments play out in real time.
He isn’t calling for the end of corporate adoption, but he clearly sees the leveraged version as a source of volatility that Bitcoin price is now paying for.
The second pillar of Edwards’ warning is quantum computing. In his October 2025 post, he stated plainly:
“Quantum will break Bitcoin and Satoshi’s coins will market dump. We must act in 2026.”
He linked to a detailed video explanation and urged action on post-quantum cryptography upgrades. The core issue is well-understood in technical circles.
Bitcoin relies on the ECDSA signature scheme. Future large-scale quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, derive private keys from exposed public keys.
Coins whose public keys have never been revealed, such as many of the roughly 1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi, remain safer for now, but any spend would expose them.
Edwards argues this uncertainty already weighs on sentiment and Bitcoin price.
He has consistently pushed for network upgrades, including post-quantum signature schemes, to be prioritized between 2026 and 2028.
Without that work, he believes the threat will continue to suppress confidence even if actual quantum breakthroughs remain years away.
What separates Edwards’ take is its specificity. Many analysts point to macro factors, ETF flows, or regulatory headlines to explain Bitcoin price moves.
Edwards keeps returning to these two structural issues that he flagged before the drop occurred.
He isn’t claiming they are the only forces at work, but he argues they have been the dominant ones in this cycle.
His DAT warning highlights real risks in how corporations have financed Bitcoin accumulation. The quantum concern, while longer-term, forces the community to confront technical debt that Bitcoin’s conservative upgrade culture has sometimes delayed.
That said, markets are rarely moved by a single narrative. Corporate treasury stress is measurable through balance sheets and share performance.
Quantum risk remains probabilistic and timeline-debated.
Edwards himself would likely agree that resolution on both fronts, sober deleveraging by DATs and steady progress on cryptography, would remove two overhangs from Bitcoin price.
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