Bitcoin price remains bearish with $59,800 serving as a make-or-break level. A breakdown could trigger a sharp sell-off, while holding above it may lead to a recovery.
Bitcoin price prediction remains the hottest topic in the crypto market, as the BTC crashed over 3% and even fell below the key threshold of $60,000.
Now the question is what is next for the asset, will this downside move likely to continue, or will the market rebound like it did in the past?
With this, the fear and greed index now plummeted to the 13 “Extreme Fear” zone, as per the Alternative multifactorial crypto market sentiment analysis. This indicates that bears are now louder than the bulls compared to the previous month.
That’s what on-chain data shows. Analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that investors and long-term holders are massively offloading their holdings to exchanges.
Over the past month, a massive 18,000 BTC has been added to exchanges, indicating a potential sell-off amid the ongoing market uncertainty.
Another metric further reinforcing BTC's downward momentum is the persistent outflows from U.S. Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive $696.29 million in net outflows over the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the funds have witnessed $1.35 billion in net outflows over the past week, indicating that institutional investors continue to reduce their exposure to Bitcoin.
Looking at these datasets, you might be wondering what's next for the BTC price. According to TradingView’s daily chart, BTC appears to be in a strong downtrend and was hovering near the make-or-break level of $59,800 level.
In fact, asset prices below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggest a broader bearish structure, while suggesting sellers remain in control.
Based on the daily chart, Bitcoin's price prediction appears bearish and could continue this downward momentum only if it breaks below the key $59,800 level.
If BTC does, the asset could witness a sharp decline in the coming days, with the price potentially reaching $45,150.
However, a potential reversal is also possible, but only if BTC remains above the $59,800 level, as it has in the past.
Amid this extreme fear in the crypto market, a leveraged company like Strategy (MSTR) appears to be getting badly impacted.
Recently, a Bitcoin-focused crypto analyst, Adam Livingston, made a bold claim, noting that his stress test on MSTR shares says no to “Death Spiral,” but BTC per MSTR share could collapse.
As per the post, the analyst ran a three-year stress test on MSTR, assuming BTC falls to $26,611 by month six, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets close, and BTC must be sold to service senior debt.
The model shows the claim ratio rising from 41.5% to 96.7%, whereas the common equity BTC per share falls from 138,161 sats to 7,884 sats, and MSTR’s modeled share price drops to as low as $1.01, in this text. After cash is exhausted in month nine, MSTR would need to sell 115,727 BTC over three years.
In the final scenario, MSTR still holds 731,636 BTC, with mNAV at 1.40x. Livingston said the model shows the main risk is compression in common equity BTC per share, rather than “instant bankruptcy” or a “death spiral.”
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