Ethereum is stuck in a tight range under $2,800. Van de Poppe expects a liquidity grab before the real move, while spot ETFs closed September with two days of outflows.
Ethereum traded close to $2,744 after a strong bounce from the $2,400 area, and it now sits just under resistance at $2,770 to $2,800.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe thinks a clean break of that zone would put $3,000 within reach.
Van de Poppe shared his view on X and highlighted the same setup on ETH that he sees elsewhere. "Break through the resistance, and it's going to be a matter of time until we'll see $ETH trading at $3,000," he wrote.
He doesn't expect a straight line up. In a separate post, he said,
"ETH is acting in such a narrow range, that I wouldn't be surprised we're going to see a liquidity grab in any of the directions, before the real move comes in. Can't happen otherwise."
That observation matters for anyone trading the range. A liquidity grab is a quick spike that runs stop losses above or below a range before Ethereum price picks its real direction.
Traders who buy the first push over $2,800 or sell the first dip under $2,650 could end up on the wrong side if that happens.
Ethereum ETF data is less upbeat. As per data from SoSoValue, spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $59.58 million on September 30, following a smaller $2.81 million outflow the day before. Total net assets fell from $17.79 billion to $17.60 billion over those two sessions.
The weekly figures show that the week ending September 25 brought $689.88 million in net inflows, helped by daily inflows of $104.63 million on September 23 and $86.95 million on September 25. The latest weekly reading through September 30 sits at a net outflow of $45.30 million.
Cumulative net inflows still stand at $13.89 billion, and the funds posted inflows in three of the past five weeks. Trading volume cooled too, with $653.42 million trading on September 30 compared to $1.18 billion on September 23.
On Van de Poppe's chart, Ethereum has spent recent sessions trading between roughly $2,650 and $2,770 after its jump from the $2,400 to $2,450 zone.
Recent candles keep pressing into the top of that box, and the $2,770 to $2,800 area is the barrier that matters most right now.
A move above $2,800 on stronger volume would show buyers are trying to push the consolidation higher. Without that volume, a breakout could easily turn into the kind of fakeout Van de Poppe warned about.
The MACD has moved back toward the zero line after the earlier bullish impulse. The rally has cooled during the sideways stretch, and the indicator isn't showing fresh price jump yet.
On the downside, $2,650 is the first support to watch. A rejection at resistance followed by a break below that level would weaken the short-term structure and push ETH to $2,548, then the $2,447 area.
If bulls clear $2,800, the next big target is the $3,000 level Van de Poppe has in mind. That's about 10% above the current price.
However, according to him, ETH could dip toward $2,650 to clear out stops, then reverse and break higher. Traders watching Ethereum closely will want to see how the price reacts at that support before reading too much into a drop.
The bearish case needs a clear break below $2,650. That would put $2,548 and $2,447 back in play and push the $3,000 target further out.
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