Crypto
Solana Upgrade Confirmed For Oct. 21, Will Price Recover?
The dollar keeps losing purchasing power, while Bitcoin follows a different path. The reason could reshape how investors view money.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingThe dollar keeps losing purchasing power, while Bitcoin follows a different path. The reason could reshape how investors view money.
Solana will activate its Alpenglow upgrade on mainnet on October 21, ending weeks of speculation over timing. The consensus overhaul cuts transaction finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds. Core developer Anza has led the work for roughly 18 months.
The timing matters for SOL, which has slid from $125 to near $107 while holders sell at a loss. Whether the upgrade can reverse that slide now depends on key support levels.
Alpenglow replaces Solana's Proof of History and TowerBFT consensus with two new components, Votor and Rotor. Final confirmation of a transaction currently takes about 12.8 seconds. The upgrade targets 150 milliseconds, making settlement feel almost instant.
Proposal SIMD-0326 formalizes the design, which Anza has described as the largest protocol upgrade in Solana's history. Activation had been speculated for September before the October 21 date was confirmed.
The code reached Solana's testnet on September 24 ahead of mainnet. Faster finality benefits bridges, exchange deposits, and high-frequency trading platforms the most.
The upgrade arrives at a delicate time for SOL, which is already losing investor confidence. Glassnode data shows exchange balances rising in recent days after weeks of consistent decline.
Total SOL on exchanges fell from about 84.5 million in late August to roughly 80 million by October 6. It has since climbed back above 81 million.
Coins moving onto exchanges typically signal selling pressure, as holders prepare to offload their positions.Net realized profit and loss tells a similar story. It plunged to roughly negative $335 million around October 8, the deepest reading in the period shown. The metric has stayed below zero since then. That confirms most selling has happened at a loss, so investors remain largely underwater.
Price action reflects that fatigue. SOL fell from about $120 in early October to near $106 on Glassnode's latest reading, even as exchange balances rose.
Profit-taking looked very different earlier. Realized profits reached about $265 million in late September, when SOL traded near its highs. Rising supply on exchanges adds overhead pressure if buyers fail to absorb it quickly.
SOL price hit a high of $124.96 in late September before reversing sharply. It has since fallen to about $107. The coming sessions will likely decide SOL's direction.
The October 13 daily candle wicked as low as $101.66. Bulls are now struggling to defend the psychological $100 mark. Support also sits at $104.19, the 0.382 level, which price briefly lost on October 13 before recovering.
The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $97.78 is the critical support. A close below it could invite a deeper drawdown toward $91.37, the 0.618 level.
Failure to hold $100 would expose the $97.78 zone quickly, leaving little room for error. Recovery targets begin at $112.13, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Reclaiming it would restore short-term bullish structure for the altcoin. That requires selling momentum to pause, as the Money Flow Index (MFI) has dipped below the 50.0 mark. Weak money flow suggests buyers have yet to return in size.
The Alpenglow launch on October 21 offers a clear catalyst. Faster finality alone may not reverse sentiment, though, without renewed buying demand from investors. For now, SOL needs to hold $97.78 and flip $112.13 to build a credible recovery.
No comments yet
