MSTR remains under pressure as STRC struggles below par value and analyst Joao Wedson warns the strategy stock could be following a prolonged bear market pattern. He also sees altcoins approaching a key turning point after months of heavy selling.
Strategy (MSTR) is back under pressure as its STRC preferred shares continue trading below their $100 par value, closing at $88.59 after dropping as low as $82.50. Trading volume surged to 10.7 million shares, far above normal levels, while Arca CIO Jeff Dorman warned that Strategy may need to sell $3-$4 billion worth of Bitcoin to restore STRC to par.
The company has already paused its STRC ATM offering, although TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on MSTR with a $400 target despite the stock falling 4% to $112.53.
Against this backdrop, crypto analyst Joao Wedson says the weakness aligns with a bearish pattern he has been warning about for months.
According to Wedson, his concerns began in 2024 when a company insider sold millions of dollars’ worth of shares almost exactly at the stock’s all-time high. Since then, he argues that MSTR has been showing classic signs of a distribution phase despite the company’s continued Bitcoin accumulation narrative.
In a recent post, Wedson said, “Strategy’s stock entered a bear market exactly when the Insider Director sold.”
He believes many investors became too focused on Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin purchase announcements while overlooking what was happening in the stock itself.
Wedson argues that MSTR’s impressive performance over recent years has largely been tied to its Bitcoin strategy rather than its underlying business.
He noted that before Strategy announced its first Bitcoin purchase in 2020, the stock had delivered relatively weak annual performance. After embracing Bitcoin, the company experienced two major rallies that transformed investor sentiment.
However, Wedson says the stock is now repeating a familiar pattern.
According to his fractal analysis, MSTR appears to be following a structure similar to the 2021-2022 bear market cycle, which lasted roughly 689 days. If that pattern continues, he believes the current downturn could extend until around October 2026.
Analyst stated, “I estimate that a good price is around 70 to 80 per share.”
He also suggested that any rally toward the 100-day moving average could become a final selling opportunity before another leg lower.
Wedson has also criticized investors who follow high-profile figures without examining the data.
In a post from late 2024, he argued that investors often focus only on Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin purchase announcements while ignoring broader market signals.
According to Wedson, both Bitcoin and MSTR spent much of 2025 moving through what he described as a classic distribution phase, where large players gradually reduce exposure while retail investors remain bullish.
While discussing MSTR, Wedson has also been following the altcoin market.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum have now experienced 15 consecutive months of net selling on spot exchanges. Selling pressure has reached its most extreme level since 2020.
The platform’s Altcoin Spot Buy/Sell Volume Difference metric recently dropped to a five-year low, showcasing how aggressive the selling has become.
As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech noted, “This is not a dip. It’s 15 months of continuous net selling.”
Despite the heavy selling, another indicator is flashing a potentially bullish signal.
CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 18.48. Historically, readings above 20 have often signaled the start of broader altcoin outperformance.
Wedson says many altcoins may already be entering the market’s “depression” phase, where discouraged investors exit positions while larger players quietly accumulate.
He explained, “This does not mean that all altcoins are going to die. It means that capital will rotate in a very selective way.”
In his view, Bitcoin dominance may continue rising, but capital could eventually flow into a smaller group of stronger altcoins rather than lifting the entire market equally.
For now, the market remains divided. MSTR continues to face bearish projections from Wedson, while altcoins sit at a critical point where extreme selling pressure could either mark the final stages of capitulation or signal further weakness ahead. The next few months may determine which scenario plays out.
No comments yet
Be the first to share your take when accounts launch.
