Bitcoin’s latest correction looks different from previous cycle bottoms. Despite the pullback, BTC never closed below Realized Price, while supply metrics and a new TD Sequential signal suggest crypto markets could be preparing for a less painful shift into the next uptrend.
Crypto markets may be turning bullish on, but on-chain stress does not appear to match the pain usually seen at previous cycle bottoms, according to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis.
Notably, this cycle’s drawdown does not appear to have pushed Bitcoin below Realized Price.
CryptoQuant’s bullish case rests on the behavior of supply in profit and loss, two on-chain measures that tend to converge at cycle bottoms before diverging as the market begins a new uptrend.
The recent assessment shows the two series beginning to separate, a sign the market may be nearing a cyclical turnaround. As per data, the latest correction did not inflict the same degree of distress on holders as seen at previous cycle bottoms.
The absence of that pain represents a meaningful change for crypto markets at a turning point, even if Bitcoin has not yet confirmed it on the price chart. The data does not prove that a new bull market has begun; only that the change in structure has taken place, as it has at previous cycle inflection points
Realized Price reflects the moving aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin, calculated by summing the purchase price of every bitcoin in circulation and then dividing that total by the current supply.
At previous cycle bottoms, Bitcoin traded well below that level. However, analysis of the 2026 crypto price cycle shows that BTC did not close a single day below Realized Price, while the June low also remained above the benchmark.
This is an important distinction for crypto markets, because it implies this cycle’s correction did not inflict the same degree of pain on holders. While this may not be sufficient reason to assume a bullish reversal has begun, it does indicate the current environment is taking shape in a way that diverges from past precedent.
Ali Martinez has spotted an additional signal, after Bitcoin fell 5.55% from its October 5 high at $86,976 to a low near $82,150.
Ali Charts detected a four-hour TD Sequential buy signal on October 8, with Martinez citing a possible end to the recent crypto pullback, although the next four-hour candles would need to “get buyers to confirm this.”
That could leave BTC USD in a precarious position, given the mixed evidence. A short-term bullish signal may point to a change in the immediate price action, but it does not necessarily indicate a definitive reversal of a longer-term trend.
Per Block Insider report, Bitcoin hovered around $83,760 after repeatedly facing rejection near $86,700 on October 7. Rekt Capital noted that a daily or three-day close above this level would be required to open the way toward the 86,700–93,700 range.
ETF demand also remains subdued. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $118.86 million in net inflows on October 6. Weekly inflows fell to $28.96 million, down from $241.09 million the previous week and $2.39 billion in the week ended September 25. As such, crypto markets appear to be in an anomalous position relative to this cycle’s turning point.
What has changed about this cycle, then, is that markets may be entering a new phase without necessarily exhausting the previous one, a factor that has characterized crypto markets since the beginning of the current bull run.
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