Cryptoquant data suggest that XRP whale inflows hit a 2021 low as $1 support weakens, while rising exchange reserves hint at downside selling pressure.
Cryptoquant, an onchain platform, noted that XRP whales are sending far less of the token to Binance, with the three month average of whale inflows falling to about $61 million, the lowest level since 2021.
The decline may reduce immediate selling pressure, but positive netflows and rising exchange reserves show that XRP still faces risks around the $1 level.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has pointed to a major change in XRP whale activity on Binance. The three month average of whale inflows has dropped to around $61 million, marking its lowest point since 2021.
The decline becomes clearer when compared with earlier periods. Whale inflows reached about $456 million in January 2025 and roughly $355 million in October.
The recent figure is therefore around six to eight times lower than those levels. This suggests that large holders are currently moving much less XRP onto Binance.
Perhaps, Darkfost warned against treating the decline as a clear bullish signal.
Darkfost also found about $18.8 million in XRP net inflows, meaning more XRP is still moving into exchanges than leaving them. This shows that while whale activity has slowed, buyers have not yet returned strongly.
The drop in whale inflows can be a positive sign because large holders may be selling less XRP than before. However, lower selling activity does not automatically mean strong buying. It could also mean that overall market activity has slowed.
For XRP to start a stronger recovery, buyers will still need to step in and push demand higher.
The exchange data gives another reason for caution. XRP exchange reserves also rose to about 2.63 billion XRP over nearly two weeks as the price stayed around $1.
More XRP on exchanges can mean more tokens are available to sell. Meanwhile, this does not mean all of them will be sold. Investors may move XRP to exchanges for different reasons.
For now, the data suggests selling pressure may be slowing, but it is still too early to call a strong XRP recovery.
While exchange flows remain mixed, the XRP Ledger is showing stronger network activity.
Santiment data in the supplied chart shows 49,929 active XRP wallets in 24 hours, the highest daily activity recorded on the network in more than two months.
That is notable because XRP's price and social sentiment have been moving in the opposite direction. The supplied Santiment data shows negative XRP commentary reaching a three-month high as the token struggled around $1.
So, the rise in activity provides one positive signal beneath the weak price action.
XRP's ability to hold $1 is now central to the short-term outlook.
A successful defense of the level could allow buyers to challenge the $1.014 area. If XRP moves above that level with strong volume, the next major target from the supplied analysis is around $1.20.
But losing $1 could change the picture quickly. That would weaken the current support structure and could open the door to deeper losses
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson said he would not be surprised to see XRP trade below $0.60. His view comes as XRP remains well above the average price level.
The chart puts XRP's average price at around $0.54, a level Wedson has described as useful when looking for major market bottoms.
His view is therefore not a prediction that XRP must fall to $0.60, but a warning that the current price still has room to decline if support breaks.
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