Solana (SOL) records a bullish breakout, and an analyst hints at a possible move toward $100, but growing bearish bets and declining liquidity raise concerns.
Solana (SOL)'s charts lean bullish, but its biggest holders are not waiting around to find out. SOL traded near $75.87 on 11 August, down about 1.4% in 24 hours, according to data from OKX and CoinGecko, after stalling at the $78 resistance that separates it from a run toward $100.
The pullback came with participation: 24-hour trading volume held near $1.46 billion, per CoinMarketCap, and SOL still gained 3% on the week. That sets up the real story, a collision between bullish chart signals and bearish on-chain behavior.
A widely followed analyst posted on X that SOL has been trading inside a parallel channel between $62 and $98. After bouncing off the lower boundary, price is now testing resistance near $78, and the analyst argued a clean break could carry SOL toward the channel top around $100.
The analyst further strengthened this bullish outlook by sharing the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator, which is flashing a buy signal on the SOL daily chart. “Meanwhile, the MACD has printed a golden cross, which is another sign that Solana may be approaching a bullish breakout,” analyst added.
However, today, August 11, 2026, SOL declined 0.95% over the past 24 hours and trades near the $76.02 level. Amid this fall, market participants have shown interest in the asset, as evidenced by its trading volume, which jumped 11% to $1.39 billion during the same period.
Looking at these developments, you might be wondering what is driving the SOL price lower.
As per the on-chain tool Nansen, over the past 24 hours, big players such as the top 100 SOL wallet addresses have reduced their holdings by 201,419 SOL, a decline of 4.44% compared to the previous day.
Meanwhile, smart money and public figures follow the same trend, as they also reduced their holdings by 107,673 SOL and 102,622 SOL, respectively, during the same period.
Another thing that keeps adding bearish pressure to the SOL price, alongside the broader crypto market, is the declining stablecoin market cap.
A crypto analyst shared a report on X, noting that between May and today, the total stablecoin market cap has gone from $280 billion to $266 billion, a fall of $15 billion.
This notable decline in stablecoin market cap suggests that there is no incoming liquidity into the market; instead, it appears to be flowing out of the market. The post on X also stated that even today, if the market manages to stabilize, demand isn’t returning, and this weakness appears to be preventing the broader market from moving back up.
Now, the thing is: what's next for the SOL price, whether the asset continues its ongoing recovery or is a potential decline ahead?
Looking at the TradingView daily chart, SOL's short-term bias appears bearish as the price seems to be rejecting a key resistance level of $78, a level that has acted as a sell wall since June 2026. In fact, the asset is experiencing this bearish pressure even after breaking out of a bullish flag-and-pole price action pattern.
Based on the current price action, if the SOL price fails to clear the $78 level, it could see a downside move in the coming days. However, this bearish outlook could only be invalidated if the asset clears $78 and closes the daily candle above it. In this scenario, SOL price resumes its price recovery.
However, SOL's broader market structure remains bearish as the price continues to trade below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating seller dominance on the asset.
Three things settle this standoff, and none of them is a chart pattern alone. Watch whether the top wallets keep distributing on Nansen, whether stablecoin market cap stops shrinking, and whether SOL can finally print a daily close above $78. If liquidity returns and the level breaks, the analyst's $100 path is live. Until then, the whales are the ones setting the price, and this week they have been sellers.
No comments yet
Be the first to share your take when accounts launch.
