Emerging Tech
Zcash Could Take 10% of Bitcoin's Market, Says Grayscale
Zcash's social buzz faded before its ETF even launched. Now Grayscale argues ZEC could take real market share from Bitcoin. Here's what happened.
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingZcash's social buzz faded before its ETF even launched. Now Grayscale argues ZEC could take real market share from Bitcoin. Here's what happened.
Zcash’s recent story is a classic crypto tale of rumors, FOMO, and the crowd’s inattention to actual news. Recently, the market noticed that Zcash's social chatter peaked for a full day before its price actually gained ground.
And then this social buzz had already faded by the morning that Grayscale's ETF actually started trading, as per data from Santiment.
Here is a step by step breakdown of how this pattern played out:
Grayscale converted its long-running Zcash Trust, first launched in 2017, into a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). It was set to trade on NYSE Arca on 25 August under the ticker ZCSH.
The fund aims to give investors exposure to ZEC through a regular brokerage account rather than a crypto wallet.
Amid the ETF rumors, ZCash's price had already done most of the work. ZEC price ran from about $509 on 18 August to roughly $852 on 23 August, a climb of about 65% in less than a week that pushed the token to its highest level since 2018. By the time the ETF opened for trading two days later, ZEC had cooled from that peak.
This is the part the price chart alone doesn’t show. Social mentions of Zcash hit 232 on 22 August, about six times the month's average, according to Santiment's tracking. That is one day before ZEC's price topped out on 23 August.
By the time the ETF actually launched on 25 August, mentions fell back to roughly baseline levels. In plain terms, attention arrived first, peaked a day ahead of price, and was mostly gone before the product that the market was supposedly excited about even opened for trading.
This sequence of events lines up with a pattern that shows up repeatedly around anticipated crypto catalysts: the crowd trades the rumor, not the news. Attention and price both built ahead of the ETF, peaked before the actual launch date, and faded once the event became real rather than expected.
Since its peak, ZEC has eased into trading near $790, down roughly 7%, as per recent data from CoinGecko. That is a normal cool-off after a 65% move, not a collapse. However, it does mean the ETF's first trading day arrived in a market that had already spent its excitement.
None of this says whether ZEC holds these levels or extends toward the $1,000 mark. What the sentiment and price timing do suggest, though, is that the ETF launch itself is unlikely to be the next catalyst.
It already happened, several days after the crowd's attention had moved on. The next real test for ZEC price is whether it can build a fresh reason for people to start talking about it again, rather than trading the memory of the last one.
Grayscale Research recently stated Zcash has a real shot at capturing some of Bitcoin's market share. They argue that Zcash, its native token ZEC, holds advantages Bitcoin does not.
In a research note from Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, the firm points to three aspects that give ZCash an edge over Bitcoin: financial privacy at a time when artificial intelligence (AI) is making financial surveillance easier, cross-chain reach through NEAR Intents, and active development against emerging security threats, including quantum computing. "Zcash does not require widespread merchant adoption," Pandl wrote.
"You, or your AI agent, can use it as a private asset hub with universal connectivity through intents."
Furthermore, Grayscale frames BTC and ZEC as complements rather than rivals for the same use case, with Bitcoin covering digital scarcity and Zcash covering digital privacy.
The firm also portrayed a scenario, not a price target, in which ZEC's value could scale with the share of Bitcoin's market capitalization it captures. Grayscale estimated that a 2% share could put ZEC above $1,622, while a 10% share by 2030 could push it toward $8,100.
Those figures depend entirely on demand for financial privacy actually materializing at that scale, and Grayscale itself has cautioned that this is a long-term thesis rather than a confirmed catalyst.
Nonetheless, this kind of narrative has the potential to restart the social chatter that had faded after the ETF launch. It gives ZEC holders something to talk about again beyond the ETF's aftermath.
Whether that translates into a new leg up, or simply another round of attention that fades before the price does, is a question the coming weeks will answer. Either way, ZEC now has two stories running at once: the ETF that already happened, and the market share thesis that has not been tested at all.
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